Brazil pork industry eyes moderate growth, record exports in 2026

Brazil’s pork industry is expected to enter 2026 amid growing stability and confidence. After a 2025 characterized by firm prices and limited production costs, the sector wrapped the year with solid profitability and favorable prospects for the next cycle. Output is projected to grow at a moderate pace, driven mainly by an expansion in exports.

Pork exports expected to reach record high in 2026

According to estimates from Safras & Mercado, Brazilian pork exports are expected to reach 1.545 million tonnes in 2026, up 6.32% from the 1.453 million tonnes projected for the close of 2025. The increase underscores the leading role of foreign markets as the main growth driver for the pork industry in Brazil.

According to Safras & Mercado analyst Allan Maia, the Philippines remain the main destination for Brazilian pork, a situation sustained by structural hassles in local production, which is still affected by African swine fever (ASF), as well as by rising domestic demand.

See below a historical overview of Brazilian pork exports starting in January 2022. The chart was made using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Pork Exports | Jan 2022 to Nov 2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Market diversification boosts exports

Brazil is also making progress in diversifying its export destinations. Japan has gradually increased its purchases, initially from approved plants in Santa Catarina, with prospects for expansion to other producing states.

Another promising market is Mexico, where trade tensions with the United States could create opportunities for Brazilian product. South Korea remains a potential market, with shipments still limited, while Vietnam continues to post growing import volumes, although affected by recurring ASF cases.

Within South America, Argentina, Chile and Uruguay also stand out as additional destinations for Brazilian pork.

China maintains reduced import share

Unlike the beginning of the decade, China is expected to keep import volumes below levels seen in previous years. According to Maia, ample domestic supply and an uncertain economic environment are likely to curb Chinese demand in the short term.

Global competitiveness favors Brazil

The analyst notes that Brazil maintains a competitive edge in the global market, both in terms of quality and price. By contrast, the European Union, Brazil’s main competitor, faces high production costs and sanitary restrictions that limit supply growth and put upward pressure on prices.

Maia also points out that new cases of African swine fever in wild boar populations in Western Europe should strengthen the positions of Brazil and the United States in global pork trade in the coming years, at the expense of European product.

Brazilian output expected to rise 2.07% in 2026

Safras & Mercado projections indicate that Brazil’s pork production should reach 5.702 million tonnes in 2026, up from an estimated 5.587 million tonnes in 2025, representing an increase of 2.07%.

For Maia, this moderate growth helps keep the domestic market balanced, avoiding supply pressures that could weigh on prices.

Economic backdrop calls for caution

Despite the optimistic outlook, the macroeconomic environment still poses challenges. High borrowing costs in 2025 constrained new investments, and even with expectations of lower interest rates, levels are likely to remain elevated.

In addition, the election year is expected to push up public spending and increase exchange-rate volatility, which could affect both production costs and domestic consumption.

Domestic consumption expected to recover in the second half

The first quarter of 2026 is expected to be more challenging for consumption due to seasonal household expenses, limiting room for price adjustments along the supply chain. From the second half of the year onward, however, domestic demand is likely to recover.

The performance of competing proteins will also be a key factor: higher beef prices tend to support pork consumption, while inflation and high interest rates keep chicken as the more affordable option.

Source: Portal do Agronegócio

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