Brazil Posts Largest October Trade Surplus Since 1989 at $9.32 Billion

Brazil’s trade surplus reached its highest level for October in 37 years, according to data released on Friday (Nov. 6) by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC).

Driven by oil, fuels, cereals and soybeans, exports exceeded imports by $9.32 billion, a surplus 39.4% larger than the $6.69 billion recorded in October 2025.

A 20% increase in exports drove the result, the best since the historical series began in 1989.

Brazil’s Trade Surplus: Key Figures

• Trade surplus: $9.32 billion (+39.4% compared with October 2025);
• Exports: $37.81 billion (+20%);
• Imports: $28.49 billion (+14.8%);
• Total trade: $66.30 billion (+17.7%).

Total trade, the sum of exports and imports, reached $66.30 billion, also the highest value ever recorded for October since the historical series began.

Exports

The increase in overseas sales was led by the extractive industry, followed by agriculture and manufacturing.

Results by sector:

• Extractive industry: $11.52 billion (+53.5% compared with October 2025);
• Manufacturing: $18.38 billion (+7.7%);
• Agriculture: $7.63 billion (+12.8%).

Notable products:

• Extractive industry: Crude oil (+122.6% compared with October 2025) and metal ores and concentrates (+900.6%);
• Manufacturing: Fuels (+164.5%) and soybean meal (+39.1%);
• Agriculture: Soybeans (+8.9%); live animals, excluding fish (+212.1%); and rye and oats (from $2.8 million to $338.8 million, an increase of approximately 12,000% due to differences in shipment schedules).

In the case of oil, higher production and a 36.7% increase in average prices following the escalation of the war in the Middle East boosted exports.

Export Destinations

Brazilian exports increased to most of the country’s major markets, including the United States, despite trade tensions between the two countries.

However, exports to China fell 5.3% following the exhaustion of the quota for meat shipments.

Brazil’s exports by destination:

• Europe: $7.76 billion (+35.8%);
• North America: $5.66 billion (+47.4%);
• South America: $4.58 billion (+14.9%);
• Asia: $15.41 billion (+9.3%).

Exports to the United States rose 11.4% in October, despite the imposition of new tariffs on Brazilian products. This was because aviation products and goods such as meat and orange juice were exempted from the additional tariffs following negotiations.

With October’s results, Brazilian exports to the United States moved into positive territory for the year, recording cumulative growth of 0.2%.

Growth in exports to the European Union may be explained by the agreement with Mercosur, which is boosting sales to the bloc, particularly of food products.

Imports

Brazilian imports increased 14.8%, driven mainly by fuels, whose prices rose 84.2% in October compared with the same month in 2025.

By category:

• Capital goods: $3.7 billion (+4%);
• Intermediate goods: $15.2 billion (+2.7%);
• Consumer goods: $5.1 billion (+25.9%);
• Fuels: $4.5 billion (+86.8%, driven by an 84.2% increase in prices).

In the case of capital goods, slower economic growth caused by high interest rates is weighing on industrial investment, with manufacturers being the main buyers of machinery.

Year-to-Date Results for 2026

From January through October, Brazil’s trade surplus reached $71.04 billion, an increase of 34.1% compared with the same period in 2025.

• Exports: $321.88 billion (+11.2%);
• Imports: $250.84 billion (+6.1%).

According to an analysis carried out by specialists at Datamar, Brazilian containerized exports totaled 2.44 million TEUs between January and September 2026, up 4.2% from the same period a year earlier. Despite the cumulative increase, shipments in September fell 1.7% year over year.

The chart below compares Brazil’s containerized exports during the first nine months of each year since 2023, based on Datamar’s DataLiner figures.

Brazilian Containerized Exports | Jan–Sep 2023 to Jan–Sep 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner – explore our trade data

Forecasts

In October, the MDIC revised its 2026 forecast downward, lowering its projected trade surplus from $90 billion to $84.4 billion.

Despite the downward revision, the result would still be the second-largest annual surplus since the historical series began in 1989, surpassed only by the $98.8 billion recorded in 2023.

The export forecast was lowered from $394.4 billion to $382.5 billion, while the import projection was reduced from $304.4 billion to $298.1 billion.

The ministry’s estimate is more optimistic than those of financial institutions. According to the Focus survey, a weekly poll of financial market expectations published by Brazil’s Central Bank, analysts project a trade surplus of $79.9 billion for 2026.

Fonte: Agência Brasil

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