Brazil Sees Over 300% Surge in Dairy Exports to China

Brazil began 2025 with a historic milestone in its dairy sector: China has become the top destination for Brazilian dairy exports, surpassing traditional buyers such as countries in the Middle East and Africa. This leap is attributed to internal structural improvements and shifting international trade dynamics.

From January to March 2025, Brazil exported 1,750 metric tons of dairy products to China and Hong Kong, accounting for 15.5% of total dairy exports. This represents a remarkable 315.7% increase in volume and a 581.2% rise in revenue compared to the same quarter of 2024, according to data compiled by Rural Business using SECEX/MAPA statistics.

Total export revenue from dairy shipments to the Chinese market reached USD 1.31 million (approx. BRL 7.67 million), based on an average exchange rate of BRL 5.857. The top exported products included whole milk powder, whey, butter, cheese, and UHT milk.

Brazilian Dairy Export Context

Brazil exported around 11,100 metric tons of milk and dairy products in the first two months of 2025 — the equivalent of over 10 million liters of milk. Data from the COMEXSTAT platform, compiled by MilkPoint, show steady growth: 4,900 tons were shipped in January and 6,200 in February, marking a 27.5% month-over-month increase.

Quarterly dairy export revenues are estimated at around USD 72 million, reinforcing the importance of external demand for maintaining balance in the domestic market.

Key Drivers of Brazil’s Growth in China

• U.S. Retraction: The ongoing U.S.–China trade war has led China to impose 25% to 45% tariffs on American dairy products, severely reducing U.S. competitiveness and creating opportunities for alternate suppliers like Brazil.
• Higher Domestic Production: In 2024, Brazil produced 25.38 billion liters of milk, up 3.1% from 2023 (IBGE data), expanding supply for export-oriented industries.
• Sanitary Agreement Progress: Brazil has advanced in its negotiations with Chinese authorities, resulting in the approval of 33 dairy processing plants to export products such as milk powder, UHT milk, and dairy ingredients. 

Chinese Market Outlook

While China reached 85% self-sufficiency in milk production by 2023, demand for cheese and butter remains high due to limited local production. Reducing liquid milk and whey purchases from major exporters like the EU and New Zealand also opens new opportunities for Brazil.

In February 2025 alone, China imported 255,500 tons of dairy products, a 16% increase in volume and 20% in value year over year. Whey stood out, overtaking whole milk powder in volume, reaching 58,000 tons—a 52% annual increase.

A Historic Opportunity for Brazil

With competitive production costs, an expanding industrial base, and growing integration into the Asian market, Brazil is positioning itself as a strong contender to become one of China’s main dairy suppliers.

The deepening of this trade relationship could attract new investments, strengthen Brazil’s domestic dairy industry, and improve profitability for rural producers in a sector still facing internal market volatility.

Brazil’s progress in the Chinese market represents a commercial victory and a strategic leap forward for its dairy industry.

Source: Compre Rural

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