Brazil set to reach record soybean output and exports in 2026

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) has released new estimates for the 2026 supply-and-demand balance of the soybean complex, reinforcing the expectation of unprecedented results for the sector. National production is projected at 177.7 million tonnes, while crushing is expected to reach 60.5 million tonnes, also boosting industrial volumes: meal production is estimated at 46.6 million tonnes, and soybean oil output should reach 12.5 million tonnes.

In foreign trade, projections keep Brazil on an upward trajectory. Abiove forecasts exports of 111 million tonnes of soybeans, in addition to 24.6 million tonnes of meal and 1.2 million tonnes of oil — the latter up 20% compared with the previous cycle.

One of the largest destinations for Brazilian soybeans is China. Below is a historical record of Brazilian soybean exports to China starting in January 2022. The chart was prepared with DataLiner data:

Brazilian Soybean Exports to China | Jan 2022 to Sep 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Imports are expected to remain at moderate levels: around 125 thousand tonnes of soybean oil and 500 thousand tonnes of soybeans for domestic supply. “Even with occasional adjustments, the numbers reinforce the strength of the soybean chain and the sector’s ability to meet domestic and foreign market demands efficiently. The expansion of processing, combined with the steady pace of exports, confirms Brazil’s strategic role in international trade of the soybean complex,” says Daniel Furlan Amaral, Abiove’s Director of Economics and Regulatory Affairs.

Performance in 2025
Consolidated data through September 2025 also shows sector growth. Soybean production in the cycle reached 172.1 million tonnes, while projected crushing totaled 58.5 million tonnes.

Meal supply is expected to reach 45.1 million tonnes, and oil 11.7 million tonnes, maintaining stability compared with previous industrial performance.

Export pace
In September 2025, processing totaled 4.1 million tonnes, down 9.1% from August and 1.2% from September 2024, after the sample adjustment.

Even so, the sector continues to expand: year-to-date processing grew 5.1% compared with the same period in 2024, totaling 39.3 million tonnes.

Source: O Presente Rural com Abiove

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