Brazil urea imports hit 10-year low

Despite progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran, the conflict in the Middle East continues to influence the global fertilizer market. Between January and May, about 1.5 million tonnes of urea arrived in Brazil, according to a Rabobank report. That marks the lowest volume recorded in the past decade.

In May 2026 alone, Brazil imported 116,000 tonnes of urea, roughly 64% less than in the same month last year, the report said. “There is still time to make up for this delay, but each day it becomes more difficult to see urea imports surpassing the volume imported in 2025,” Rabobank noted.

Weaker demand for urea reflects a recent price trajectory similar to that observed during the first weeks of the war in Ukraine in 2022. According to the report, prices at that time took about six weeks to reach their peak and another ten weeks to return to the levels seen before the conflict.

Compared with the previous year, Datamar data shows that Brazilian urea imports (hs codes 3102.10.10; 3102.10.90) fell 3.2% cumulatively between January and April. The chart below compares the volumes recorded in recent years:

Urea Imports | Jan-Apr | 2022-2026 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Total phosphorus imports between January and May, meanwhile, were 3% higher than in the same period last year. According to Rabobank, lower imports of monoammonium phosphate (MAP) have been partially offset by increased purchases of single superphosphate (SSP) and triple superphosphate (TSP).

The scenario has led to expectations of a decline in overall fertilizer demand in 2026. RaboResearch, Rabobank’s research and market intelligence division, estimates fertilizer deliveries in Brazil will reach 45.1 million tonnes by year-end, representing an annual decline of 8.2%.

For now, however, lower fertilizer imports have not altered expectations for a record soybean harvest in the 2026/27 season. RaboResearch estimates Brazil’s soybean crop will reach 182 million tonnes.

Within this context, Rabobank’s research division also projects new records for domestic consumption of Brazilian soybeans.

According to data from Cargonave, soybean exports rose 8% between January and May 2026. For the full year, shipments are expected to reach 113 million tonnes, an increase of 5 million tonnes compared with the previous crop year.

The institution noted that Brazilian exports remained strong despite higher domestic freight costs, signs of weakening Chinese demand, and the appreciation of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar.

The Dutch bank’s report also pointed out that soybean prices were heavily influenced by geopolitical developments during the first half of the year. In recent weeks, however, as the U.S. crop has advanced, prices have once again been driven primarily by market fundamentals.

The report also revised upward its forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop. Production is now estimated at 138 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes more than in the previous report. The revision was mainly driven by favorable weather conditions for the development of Mato Grosso’s second-crop corn, known locally as the “safrinha.”

Competition from the United States and Argentina, however, is expected to limit the pace of Brazilian corn exports in 2026. Rabobank lowered its forecast for 2026 shipments by 3 million tonnes, to 39 million tonnes.

Source: Valor International

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