Brazilian exporters rush shipments ahead of possible U.S. tariff hike

The likely U.S. tariff hike on Brazilian goods is prompting exporters to accelerate shipments to the United States in sectors such as machinery, footwear and seafood. Business leaders from those industries also plan to take part in a public hearing scheduled for early July, when the proposed surcharges are expected to be discussed as part of the Section 301 investigation.

José Velloso, executive president of the Brazilian Machinery and Equipment Industry Association, Abimaq, said the threat of higher tariffs is likely to trigger an initial rush to bring shipments forward in the coming weeks.

“If the U.S. tariff hike is set at 25%, it should take effect after July 16, most likely toward the end of July. So companies still have enough time to ship goods and have them arrive in the United States under the 10% tariff, before shipments normalize and export volumes to the U.S. decline,” he said.

The U.S. market accounts for about 50% of Brazilian seafood exports, and 90% of the tilapia produced in Brazil is shipped to the United States. The sector had expected sales to recover this year and projected exports of about US$300 million to the U.S. market. Companies are now working to redirect part of their output to markets developed during the 2025 tariff surge, including Arab countries, while also expanding shipments to China.

Port throughput data obtained by Datamar shows that Brazil exported 303 TEUs of frozen fish to the United States in the first four months of the year. The chart below provides a year-over-year comparison:

Frozen Fish Exports to the United States | Jan 2023 – Apr 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Eduardo Lobo, president of Abipesca, said the industry is monitoring the situation with concern but noted that alternative markets could absorb part of the production.

“In other words, there are alternatives to the U.S. market for our products. Other markets have been opened, and that gives the sector some room to maneuver. These markets do not pay the same as the U.S. market, but we should not see such a sharp slowdown. What we will see is margin compression,” he said.

The United States has also resumed higher purchases of Brazilian footwear. According to the industry association, exports reached 843,000 pairs in April, up 40.5% from the same month last year.

On another front, the Brazilian government is awaiting a meeting later this week with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to discuss the tariffs imposed on Brazil. The talks will take place within the working group that had been addressing the Section 301 investigation into Brazil, which covers issues such as Pix, ethanol and intellectual property protection.

Source: CBN

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