Brazilian farm exports hold steady despite U.S. tariffs

Brazilian agribusiness has demonstrated its resilience throughout 2025. Even in the face of major challenges this year (such as the avian flu outbreak in May and the imposition of tariffs by the United States), export performance has remained firm.

In the first half of this year, the sector’s export revenues exceeded US$ 82 billion, a slight 0.2% decline compared with the same period in 2024, according to research by the Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics (Cepea) at Esalq/USP, based on data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) and the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Siscomex system). Export volumes fell 2.9% in the first six months of 2025 compared with the same period last year, but a 2.7% increase in dollar prices helped offset the drop in U.S. dollar revenues.

The sector also benefited from a 5.7% depreciation in the average exchange rate (R$/US$) in the first half, which contributed to a 10% increase in domestic prices in reais. As a result, revenues in local currency rose 5%.

According to Cepea researchers, exports of beef, pork, soybean oil, pulp, and cotton registered growth in shipped volumes, while coffee and orange juice saw strong price increases. The tariffs imposed by the U.S. government did not prevent growth in beef exports in the first half, although sales to the U.S. were already declining in June. Even so, higher exports to China, Mexico, and Chile, as well as other Asian countries, kept Brazilian beef shipments expanding.

For chicken meat, the main destinations in the first half were China (11%), the United Arab Emirates (10%), Saudi Arabia (10%), Japan (8%), and Mexico (5%). Due to the avian flu outbreak, exports were partially suspended for several months by important buyers. The outbreak was confirmed on May 15 at a breeder farm (for fertile eggs) in Montenegro, Rio Grande do Sul, but after meeting all international protocols, Brazil was again certified as disease-free on June 18.

Despite this episode, and even though major buyers such as China and the European Union had not resumed purchases by the end of June, export volumes in the first half of 2025 remained close to 2024 levels. With a nearly 5% increase in average dollar prices, revenues for this segment rose 4.5% in the semester. Expectations are that volumes will remain stable or even increase this year, especially with the return of all buyers following resolution of the outbreak.

For the coming months, coffee and orange juice prices are expected to remain high, given limited supply both in Brazil and worldwide and strong global demand. On the other hand, grain prices—soybeans, corn, and wheat—will likely be influenced by harvests in the United States, Ukraine, and other major Northern Hemisphere producers.

Cepea researchers note that the key question ahead is the extent of the impact of U.S. tariffs on global economic growth and their potential effects on world demand for food, fibers, and energy. As essential goods, food consumption is not expected to decline significantly. Furthermore, the fact that not all countries have chosen retaliation could lead to a reconfiguration of trade that minimizes the effects of U.S. tariffs. In this way, Brazil could find room to secure new partnerships and continue expanding its agricultural exports.

Source: O Presente Rural

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