Brazilian fish exports face investment delays amid war and economic uncertainty

Rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East, higher production and logistics costs, and mounting economic uncertainty are prompting companies tied to Brazilian fish exports to delay at least R$500 million in investments planned for 2026.

After the resumption of regular exports to the United States following the rollback of tariff increases, companies in the sector had been preparing to expand processing units, build new plants and hatcheries, and upgrade technology. Those plans have now been put on hold, according to Eduardo Lobo, president of the Brazilian Association of Fish Industries, or Abipesca.

“In January and February, all business owners were ready to draw on any kind of reserves, make any sacrifice, and move ahead with new investments. Today, everyone is on hold because they do not know what will happen,” Lobo told Valor.

He said the pipeline of delayed investments totals around R$500 million. An election year and signs of a mild economic slowdown are also clouding the outlook for companies involved in Brazilian fish exports.

According to Lobo, the war has already hit a key destination. He said the Arab market, where tourism is a major driver of demand for Brazilian fish, has effectively collapsed. At the same time, the sector expects freight costs to rise by as much as 40% because of higher diesel prices. Air shipments are also becoming more expensive as aviation fuel costs climb.

The chart below shows the performance of Brazil’s frozen fish exports between January 2023 and February 2026. The data is available on Datamar’s DataLiner platform.

Frozen Fish Exports | Jan 2023 – Feb 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Those pressures are being felt across the supply chain for Brazilian fish exports. Diesel used by fishing vessels accounts for about 40% of the cost of fish purchased by processing companies. Brazil’s artisanal fishing fleet includes about 20,000 small vessels measuring between eight and 12 meters.

Lobo said Brazilian consumers could begin to feel the impact in retail prices from May, depending on how long the conflict lasts. So far, prices have remained stable during Lent and Holy Week, traditionally a peak consumption period for fish in Brazil.

“It will affect procurement costs and make our product more expensive. We could lose competitiveness in international markets for extractive products, and in the domestic market fish could become more expensive for consumers starting in May. That is very bad because it directly discourages consumption,” he said.

Lobo said inventories had been built up before the war and before logistics costs increased, helping shield prices through the end of April. “We moved in advance to avoid price impacts during Holy Week. We will now see the effects in the restocking cycle,” he said.

He also said the industry still faces the challenge of expanding domestic consumption. Because fish is not the cheapest protein on the market, some consumers who would like to eat more fish end up buying less as costs rise.

Even so, imported products such as salmon, hake, and cod are cheaper than they were during last year’s Lent, helped by a weaker dollar.

In foreign markets, Brazilian fish exports have already had to adjust. With the United States — historically the sector’s main destination — largely closed off in 2025, exporters were forced to find alternative markets. Asia increased its purchases, led by China, which accounted for 67% of Brazilian shipments last year. Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore also emerged as relevant destinations.

Australia became a new market, while some African countries maintained regular purchases. Middle East destinations such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar, however, have now become commercially unviable because of the war.

“These markets absorbed part of the production that used to go to the United States, although at lower prices. But it is the beginning of a new consumer market,” Lobo said.

Brazil lost about $100 million in fish product exports to the United States because of last year’s tariff hike. Now, with tariffs at 10%, the same level applied to competitors, the sector expects Brazilian fish exports to the U.S. to recover and reach $550 million.

Lobo said the industry has also been encouraged by the transfer of former Fisheries Minister André de Paula to the Agriculture Ministry, which he sees as giving the sector greater visibility inside the federal government.

The main near-term expectation, however, is an European Union audit in Brazil that the sector has been awaiting for seven years. If it moves forward, the review could reopen the bloc to Brazilian fish exports. Lobo said there is a real possibility of restoring trade ties and resuming shipments to the EU.

Source: Valor International

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