Brazilian Fruit Exporters Brace for Price Drops After U.S. Tariff Hike

With no backup plan to counter the 50% surcharge imposed by the United States on Brazilian products, fruit exporters are certain that prices will drop for their main export items: mango, grape, and açaí pulp. Together, these three products account for 90% of exports to the U.S., according to the Brazilian Association of Fruit and Derivative Exporters (Abrafrutas).

The impact on the domestic market will be felt according to each crop’s harvest schedule. The first is mango, which is already being harvested and was set to begin shipping in August—precisely when the new tariff is expected to take effect. “Everything was ready for harvest—space booked on the ship, packaging purchased, protocols followed, everything lined up to start the season,” said Abrafrutas’ institutional director, Luiz Roberto Barcelos.

The association estimates that 70,000 tons of mangoes had been sold to U.S. importers this season. That volume will now need to be redirected to the European market—which is currently supplied by local producers—or to the domestic market in Brazil.

“That will definitely push prices down because there will be an oversupply in markets that were already well stocked,” Barcelos said.

Faced with this scenario, he added, some producers are considering leaving fruit unharvested when weighing operational costs against the expected value of the product.

Moreover, investment in the next harvest is also in jeopardy, given uncertainty over how long the tariff will remain in place. “With a 50% tax, Brazilian fruit is practically unmarketable,” he added.

Harvested in mid-November, grapes from the São Francisco Valley will be the next crop affected by the tariff. In 2024, 26.13% of Brazil’s grape exports went to the U.S. For açaí pulp, the U.S. was the destination for 31% of exports last year. Combined, these two products generated US$89 million in revenue in 2024. In the case of mangoes, US$45.8 million worth was exported to the U.S., accounting for 13% of total mango exports during that period.

Another fruit affected by the tariff is avocado, which had not yet begun shipping. The sector had been negotiating access to the U.S. market for avocado exports, but in light of the current situation, that possibility is now seen as off the table. “Things were already going badly because the U.S. had been pressuring Brazil to open its market to American ethanol. Now everything is on hold,” Barcelos revealed.

With no alternatives, the industry’s only hope is a potential reversal of the U.S. decision to impose the tariff on Brazil. “We hope that dialogue can overcome any trade friction and that there will be a review and revocation of this possible tariff implementation,” said Valeska Oleiveira Ciré, Brazil country manager for the International Fresh Produce Association (IFPA). According to her, IFPA has been working to demonstrate to the U.S. government that the country relies on Brazilian fruit.

“As a private sector organization and industry association, we’re pursuing dialogue and working to inform both governments about the implications of this decision. On the other side, American consumers also expect to continue buying mangoes at competitive prices,” said Ciré.

Source: Globo Rural

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