Brazilian furniture and mattress exports start 2026 lower amid shifting global trade patterns

Brazilian exports of furniture and mattresses started 2026 in decline. In January, shipments totaled $39.0 million, down 41.8% from December ($66.9 million) and 13.7% lower than January 2025 ($45.1 million).

The first month of the year is typically a slower period for shipments. Still, the scale of the drop — and the context in which it occurred — suggests the decline is not purely seasonal. The figures reflect a broader environment in which predictability has become scarce for exporters, particularly after the tariff shock imposed by the United States in the second half of 2025.

The backdrop extends beyond fewer containers leaving Brazilian ports. The country’s furniture industry ended 2025 with a 1.2% decline in production volume, indicating the sector had already begun adjusting operations amid a more hostile external environment and a domestic market pressured by high interest rates and tighter credit conditions.

The data come from “Furniture Outlook – February 2026 Edition,” a report published by ABIMÓVEL (Brazilian Furniture Industry Association) based on research conducted by IEMI using official sources.

January signals show 2025’s challenges persist

Since the tariff measures were announced — taking effect in August 2025 — companies have reported a recurring pattern: order cancellations, renegotiations, shortened contracts and purchases placed on hold.

The start of 2026 was expected to test whether the market would recover after legal adjustments and institutional changes in Washington. It did not. January’s figures indicate the problem was not temporary: importers purchase when they can calculate total costs and risks. Without clarity, they postpone orders or shift to other suppliers.

The following chart tracks the monthly progression of Brazilian furniture and home furnishings (including lighting fixtures, bed bases, and seats) exported since January 2023. This data is provided by Datamar’s DataLiner market intelligence platform:

Furniture Exports | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

This reconfiguration is visible in export destinations. In January, the United States accounted for just 19.3% of Brazil’s exports of finished furniture and mattresses, down sharply from 28.3% in January 2025 and 34.7% in January 2024.

Other markets gained relative importance, including Uruguay (12.2%), Chile (8.0%), Peru (7.7%) and the United Kingdom (6.0%). Argentina, which had been increasing its share, saw a decline at the start of the year, though it still maintained higher purchase levels than in previous years.

Tariff landscape in the United States

Among the most recent developments in U.S. trade policy, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to impose broad tariffs, overturning global tariffs implemented under that law by a 6–3 vote.

However, markets focused less on the ruling and more on the response. The Trump administration moved quickly to implement new trade measures, including Section 122, introduced as a temporary surcharge initially set at 10%, with the possibility of rising to 15%. The measure typically applies for up to 150 days, unless extended by legislation.

For the furniture industry, however, the most significant measure remains the September 29, 2025 proclamation expanding Section 232 tariffs to include wood, wood derivatives and manufactured products using wood as a key input.

As a result, wood furniture classified under Chapter 94 of the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTSUS) — including upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities — began to be treated as “derivative products” of timber and lumber, subject to an additional 25% tariff, on top of the regular most-favored-nation rate.

In general, products subject to Section 232 tariffs do not accumulate with the Section 122 surcharge, making tariff classification by product code essential. At the same time, Section 301 investigations could lead to further targeted tariffs in the future.

For importers, the key challenge is not only the tariff level but also the uncertainty over how long the rules will remain in place, affecting the ability to negotiate contracts, produce goods, ship them and sell them in destination markets.

In practice, this means there is no single tariff rate applied to all Brazilian furniture exports. Instead, the sector faces a layered tariff regime depending on factors such as the 10-digit HTSUS code, the primary material (wood, metal or plastic), the type of product (finished goods, components or parts) and the specific trade policy instruments applied.

Impact of tariffs on Brazil’s furniture industry

The sector estimates that the cumulative impact of the tariffs has resulted in losses of between $70 million and $90 million.

Recovering part of this volume is possible but unlikely to happen quickly. It depends on factors such as shelf space cycles — when one supplier leaves and another takes its place — financial capacity to absorb costs and retain clients, seasonal sales cycles and the behavior of international competitors.

“Even if regulatory conditions improve, recovery will not be immediate. The pipeline takes months to rebuild,” said Cândida Cervieri, executive director of ABIMÓVEL and manager of the Brazilian Furniture Project, an internationalization initiative run by the association in partnership with ApexBrasil.

In industrial clusters highly exposed to the U.S. market — particularly in southern and southeastern Brazil — the effects have been even more systemic.

The impact extends beyond export declines and includes production rescheduling, shift adjustments, contract renegotiations, higher inventories, reduced planning visibility and even temporary production suspensions. This shortens decision horizons and affects the entire supply chain, from suppliers and transport companies to local economic dynamics.

In employment terms, the sector estimates that around 10,000 layoffs have already been influenced by the tariff shock.

Modernization and expansion projects have also been revised or postponed. Investments in machinery and equipment fell sharply in the second half of 2025 and remained in negative territory in January 2026, with a 28.8% decline.

“We are facing an asymmetric shock: for the United States, Brazil represents less than 1% of total furniture imports. But for many Brazilian companies, the U.S. market accounted for a large share of their exports, sometimes up to 100% of production,” Cervieri said.

“This asymmetry explains why the damage is concentrated in certain companies and quickly spreads through regional industrial clusters and local economies.”

Effects on the supply chain

The adjustment is also visible in the furniture supply chain, which includes components, machinery and materials.

In January, the segment exported $253.5 million, down from $264.0 million in January 2025 and $285.5 million in January 2024.

The United States remained the largest destination, accounting for 33.4% of exports, followed by Argentina (13.1%) and Mexico (6.6%), along with markets such as Colombia, Chile, Paraguay and several European countries, including Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands.

Source: ABIMÓVEL

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