Brazilian grape exports to the United States drop 70% from July to September

Two months after the tariff hike imposed by the U.S. government, Brazilian grape exports have been the most affected sector, with shipments to the United States down 70% in the third quarter of this year and revenue falling 22% compared to the same period last year, according to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea). Shipments to the U.S. accounted for about 4% of total grape exports in the third quarter — one of the seven lowest shares for the period in Comex Stat’s historical series. In the same quarter of last year, the U.S. received 38% of all Brazilian grape exports.

See below the main destinations for Brazilian grapes in the first eight months of 2025. The chart was prepared with DataLiner data:

Main destinations for Brazilian grapes | Jan–Aug 2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

In the third quarter of this year, Brazil exported 6.8 thousand tonnes of grapes. The scenario is even more challenging considering that grape exports had already declined in 2024, falling 24% from the previous year. Last year, 58.9 thousand tonnes were exported, according to Comex Stat, and from January to September this year, exports totaled 19.3 thousand tonnes. Over the first three quarters of 2025, Brazil exported only about one-third of last year’s total volume.

“The impact of the tariff hike was significant for the grape sector, especially for producers who depend on the U.S. market. But Brazilian agribusiness has a record of resilience. This is a time for restructuring, seeking new destinations, strengthening partnerships with countries that value the quality of Brazilian grapes, and investing in differentiation to reduce dependence on a few markets,” said Ascenza Brasil’s country director, Renato Francischelli.

The São Francisco Valley (in Pernambuco and Bahia) remains Brazil’s main table-grape-producing region. According to Cepea, the U.S. market is one of the most important for premium grape varieties. However, with exports to the U.S. down, Brazilian exporters turned to other destinations. Argentina absorbed more than 50% of the quarter’s volume, consolidating its position as the main short-term market, while the United Kingdom and the Netherlands maintained their relevance as gateways for the fruit into Europe.

Latin American countries increased their share, accounting for a significant portion of total exports, though at lower average prices, Cepea reported. The agency said this redirection helped prevent oversupply in the domestic market but did not offset revenue losses in the U.S.

The average export price (FOB) for grapes fell 22% in the third quarter compared to the same period last year — from US$3.00 to US$2.40 per kilo — reflecting a loss of competitiveness relative to Chile, Mexico, and Peru.

Cepea noted that the U.S. tariff hike marked a disruptive turning point, historically reducing the share of the American market. Domestically, between August and October 2025, supply remained controlled, sustaining stable prices thanks to firm demand and the offseason in other producing regions.

According to Francischelli, despite the downturn, there are important opportunities in Asia and the Middle East, markets that are expanding their consumption of fresh fruit. “Brazil has competitive potential due to its ability to produce at different times of the year and the high quality of its grapes. Strengthening logistics and investing in international certifications can open new trade routes and bring greater stability to exports,” he said.

The executive emphasized that protecting grape cultivation is crucial not only to maintain productivity but also to preserve the quality that makes Brazilian grapes stand out abroad. “Sustainable management is now one of the key pillars for producers to remain competitive and ensure vineyard health even in adverse market conditions,” Francischelli added.

Source: Notícias Agrícolas

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