Brazilian industry sees first export outlook drop since 2023 amid U.S. tariff hike

The tariff hike imposed by the United States on Brazilian products is beginning to impact industry expectations. The index that measures export projections for the next six months fell by 5.1 points in August, dropping to 46.6 points. This is the first time in 21 months — since November 2023 — that a decline in expectations for foreign sales has been recorded, according to the Industrial Survey released by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) on Wednesday.

CNI itself reduced its 2025 industrial growth forecast from 2% to 1.7%, citing the effects of high interest rates and a deteriorating global outlook. The confederation estimates that the new U.S. trade measure will reduce Brazil’s export value by more than US$5 billion this year, lowering the total to US$341.9 billion. As a result, the trade surplus is expected to shrink by 14% compared to 2024, to US$56.6 billion.

“The worsening of the industry’s export expectations is closely linked to external uncertainties, particularly due to the new U.S. trade policy,” said Isabella Bianchi, a Policy and Industry Analyst at CNI, in a statement.

Since August 6, nearly half of Brazil’s export portfolio to the United States has been subject to a combined 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. government. According to a CNI survey, in 2024, exports of these goods reached US$17.5 billion.

The effects of the tariff hike are also reflected in employment expectations. The index measuring projected job creation fell to 49.3 points in August, signaling that business leaders no longer expect hiring growth in the coming months.

Additionally, the survey indicates a decline in the indices for demand expectations (53.1 points) and purchases of inputs and raw materials (52.1 points). Although both remain above the 50-point threshold, which indicates growth, the projected pace is slower than in July.

The investment intention index also fell to 54.6 points, the lowest level since October 2023, although it remains above the historical average.

Source: O Globo

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