Brazilian tobacco exports drop in first two months of 2026, but remain above average

Brazilian exports of tobacco and its manufactured byproducts posted a significant decline in the first two months of 2026, totaling US$ 373.5 million and 63.6 thousand tonnes. The result represents a 36.7% drop in value and a 19.1% drop in volume compared to the same period in 2025, when the sector reached a historic record. The slowdown interrupts the recent cycle of strong expansion and brings the sector’s performance back closer to the average levels observed in recent years.

Datamar market intelligence indicates that tobacco shipments reached 5,988 TEUs during the opening two months of the year. The following breakdown tracks the monthly outbound flows recorded at Brazilian maritime ports:

Tobacco Exports | Jan 2023 – Feb 2026 | TEUs

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A comparison with 2025 highlights the magnitude of the decline. In the first two months of last year, exports reached US$ 590.4 million, the highest value in the entire historical series that began in 1997. The 2026 result, although still high in historical terms, represents a significant correction after a period of exceptional performance.

Analysis of the historical series shows that the sector has evolved consistently over the past decades, though it has been marked by fluctuations. In the late 1990s, shipments in the first two months ranged between approximately US$ 60 million and US$ 200 million. Throughout the 2000s, there was gradual growth, with values generally ranging from US$ 100 million to US$ 250 million, reflecting the expansion of Brazil’s presence in international markets.

From the 2010s onward, the sector began operating at a higher level, although with greater volatility. There were years of decline, such as 2017, when exports totaled US$ 175.4 million, interspersed with periods of recovery and growth. This behavior reinforces the cyclical nature of tobacco foreign trade.

The most consistent jump occurred from 2020 onward, when exports more frequently exceeded the US$ 300 million mark in the first two months. Between 2022 and 2025, this new level became consolidated, culminating in the record set in 2025. In this context, the 2026 result indicates an important short-term inflection, although it still keeps the sector at a historically high level.

VALUATION

Another relevant aspect of the series is the different behavior between value and volume. Over time, growth in value has been more pronounced than in volume, suggesting the influence of international prices and higher value-added exports. In 2026, the sharper drop in value than in volume reinforces this pattern.

Despite the decline at the beginning of the year, the sector’s history indicates that downturns following periods of growth are not uncommon. Performance over the coming months will be decisive in determining whether the current decline is merely a temporary adjustment after the 2025 peak or the beginning of a new cycle of stabilization in Brazilian tobacco exports.

Source: Olá Jornal

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