Brazil’s Beef, Sugar, and Honey Sectors Estimate Losses from U.S. Tariff Hike

Brazilian meatpackers have suspended production and processing of beef cuts specifically intended for the United States after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on products Brazil sells to the country. With the new tariff, export contracts will need to be renegotiated, and shipments will become unfeasible this year, according to Roberto Perosa, president of the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (Abiec).

Before the tariff was announced, Brazil had expected to double its beef sales to the U.S. in 2025. That forecast will now be revised. There is also uncertainty over containers currently in Brazilian ports or already en route to the United States. Most of the cargo originally bound for the U.S. is expected to be redirected to China, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.

“Brazilian processors have already decided to temporarily pause production bound for the U.S. Companies have sharply reduced the production flow of beef cuts destined specifically for the American market,” said Perosa in a conversation with foreign correspondents on Friday (July 11). He added that companies are “concerned” about what might happen next.

In the sugar and ethanol industry, the 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian products will impose an additional cost of over US$ 100 million on sugar and ethanol mills, according to estimates from consultancy Datagro. To arrive at this figure, the firm applied the new rate to export volumes and reference prices for both products.

Last year, Brazil exported 309.7 million liters of ethanol to the U.S. at an average price of US$ 0.587 per liter. With the 50% tariff, the additional cost to companies would be US$ 90.9 million. For sugar, the estimated added cost is US$ 27.9 million, based on a duty-free quota of 146,600 tonnes and an average price of US$ 371 per tonnes.

Piauí’s honey production chain is already feeling the effects of Trump’s tariff hike. On Friday, Casa Apis—a cooperative central that brings together organic beekeepers in the Northeast—received a request to suspend shipment of five containers to the U.S. market, totaling 95 tonnes. General director Antônio Dantas Filho explained that contracts were not canceled. On Sunday (July 13), the cargo was cleared for shipment.

Brazilian rice mills are also concerned about the impact of the 50% tariff on exports to the U.S. Currently, the American market accounts for 19% of Brazil’s white rice shipments.
“While the U.S. has ample ease in replacing Brazilian rice, Brazil depends on this market to offload a significant portion of its milled rice production,” said the Brazilian Rice Industry Association (Abiarroz) in a statement.

Source: Globo Rural

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