Brazil’s forward soy sales lag as producers hold out for better prices

Uncertainty in the international soybean market — mainly a result of the tariff war promoted by Donald Trump’s government — is making Brazilian producers more cautious about closing forward sales for the 2025/26 crop, which is just beginning to be planted in the country. As a result, marketing of the new crop is currently behind last year’s pace, as producers believe they may secure better prices later on.

Rafael Silveira, an analyst at Safras & Mercado, said that in September, forward sales reached 20.18% of the expected production for the 2025/26 season. This level is below the five-year average of 28.12%. According to Silveira, this stance is linked to the U.S.–China trade war. Although both countries announced a truce in retaliatory tariffs, uncertainty remains over whether China will resume buying U.S. soybeans.

“The first point to understand the slowdown in sales is the trade war. The last soybean shipment from the U.S. to China was in May. Since then, Brazil and Argentina have been supplying the Asian country. Producers are holding back sales to try to secure better prices later on,” said Silveira.

According to the consultancy’s calculations, by the end of August, China had purchased 65.92 million tonnes of soybeans from Brazil this year, 8% more than in the same period last year. The U.S., meanwhile, exported 22.4 million tonnes to China in the same period, down 7.8% year-on-year.

See below a history of Brazilian soybean exports to China from January-July 2022-2025. The chart was prepared with DataLiner data:

Brazilian Soybean Exports to China | Jan 2022 to Jul 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Given China’s “delay” in resuming purchases from the U.S., the analyst expects demand for Brazilian soybeans to remain strong. “Brazil should export 104 million tonnes in the 2024/25 crop. Even with that volume, our carryover stocks would still be very large, which will push producers to be more aggressive in selling,” he said.

Enílson Nogueira, an analyst at Céleres Consultoria, estimates forward sales of the new crop at 25% of production, about ten percentage points behind schedule. He says that beyond the tariff war, the slower pace also reflects exchange rate behavior.

“Today the dollar is stuck at around R$5.40, whereas it had previously been at R$5.60, which offered producers a much better margin. The second point is that they still don’t know if China will actually buy soybeans from the U.S. All this uncertainty is fueling a ‘wait-and-see’ stance, with producers holding back to strike deals at the best possible time,” Nogueira said.

According to Ênio Fernandes, of Terra Agronegócios, the current 25% of soybeans sold should be closer to 30%, if not for the drop in soybean futures prices amid abundant global supply.

“For many producers, the math doesn’t add up today. So they’ll wait for either Chicago to rise or for the dollar to appreciate, balancing costs. But the trend for soybeans is still bearish, and the dollar has no upward horizon amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts,” he said.

Brandalizze Consulting estimates Brazil’s forward sales at 18% of expected production for the 2025/26 crop, whereas the normal range for this time of year is 25% to 27%. In Mato Grosso, which traditionally sells forward more aggressively, the rate is 22%, significantly lower than the average of 35%, according to Vlamir Brandalizze.

Like other specialists, he notes that producers are delaying sales in anticipation of higher prices. But Brandalizze warns of a risk in this strategy: falling premiums at Brazilian ports during harvest time if forward sales don’t pick up. “If too much soybean is left to sell at harvest time, prices will fall,” he said.

He added that the U.S. is expected to harvest a smaller crop than last year and may strike a deal with China to resume exports, which would have little impact on prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects U.S. production at 116.82 million tonnes, 1.7% smaller than the 2024/25 crop.

While consultancies see slow forward sales, one of Brazil’s largest agribusiness companies reports a different picture. André Guillaumon, CEO of BrasilAgro, told reporters last week that the company had already sold forward 48% of its expected soybean production for the 2025/26 crop, in line with the historical average of 45% to 49%.

Guillaumon noted that sales across Brazil are indeed behind schedule. “Forward sales should already be above 40% nationwide, but are around 30%. In my view, producers saw premiums recover and decided to hold back, waiting for even better prices,” he said.

He added that soybean premiums reached US$2 per bushel over Chicago futures prices. But he noted that premiums projected for September 2026 are between US$0.30 and US$0.40 per bushel, suggesting a downward trend in the months ahead.

With uncertainty over whether China will resume purchases from the U.S., producers are holding back 2025/26 crop sales in anticipation of higher prices.

Source: Globo Rural

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