China Holds Off on New Soybean Purchases as Brazil and U.S. Compete for Year-End Demand

China has yet to announce new soybean purchases following the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. With no additional volumes or changes to trade terms for U.S. soybeans announced, market attention has turned to when Chinese importers will resume booking cargoes and which suppliers they will choose.

According to data presented by Biond Agro, China has already contracted approximately 28 million tonnes of Brazilian soybeans, 13.73 million tonnes from the United States and 1.65 million tonnes from Argentina and Uruguay combined. These purchases give Chinese buyers room to assess prices and availability before placing additional orders, although coverage begins to decline for shipments scheduled from December onward.

According to Datamar data, China accounted for 58.46% of Brazilian soybean exports. See more details below:

Soybean Exports to China | Jan-Aug | 2024-2026 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner – explore our trade data

U.S. Soybean Purchase Agreement Still Has 11.3 Million Tonnes Outstanding

China has committed to purchasing at least 25 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans annually from 2026 through 2028. Of that amount, 13.73 million tonnes had been contracted for 2026, according to Biond Agro’s figures, leaving approximately 11.3 million tonnes needed to meet this year’s commitment.

Ahead of the meeting between the two presidents, market participants had considered the possibility of increasing purchases to between 27 million and 28 million tonnes, with more optimistic scenarios approaching 30 million tonnes. No additional volumes were announced.

According to Isabella Pliego, intelligence and strategy analyst at Biond Agro, the pace of upcoming purchases will be just as important as the total volume acquired. Purchases aimed solely at fulfilling the existing 25-million-tonne commitment would keep demand within market expectations, while volumes exceeding that threshold could change the outlook for U.S. soybean exports.

China’s Soybean Purchase Coverage Declines From December

The survey estimates China’s soybean requirements at approximately 111 million tonnes, of which 43.37 million tonnes have already been contracted. That represents around 39% of demand, compared with 31.3% at the same point last year. Although total requirements have increased by approximately 3%, the volume already contracted has risen 28.8%.

Coverage is stronger in the near term. For October, China has contracted 10.49 million tonnes against estimated requirements of 10.5 million tonnes. In November, purchases total 5.54 million tonnes, equivalent to 69% of the projected 8 million tonnes.

The share of requirements covered by existing contracts falls to 40% in December and 17% in January. Coverage stands at 26% for February, 56% for March and 44% for April. These percentages indicate the months in which China will still need to secure additional soybeans, although purchasing decisions will also depend on prices and trade conditions.

U.S. Soybeans Dominate Near-Term Purchases as Brazil Gains Ground in 2027

The United States accounts for most of the soybean cargoes contracted by China for October and November, when supplies from the new U.S. harvest are most readily available. For October, approximately 6.40 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans have been contracted, compared with 3.30 million tonnes from Brazil. In November, the respective volumes stand at 2.90 million and 2.11 million tonnes.

Brazilian soybeans gain ground in the following months among shipments already booked. China has contracted approximately 2.11 million tonnes from Brazil for February, 6.73 million tonnes for March and 5.48 million tonnes for April, when supplies from Brazil’s new harvest will be more readily available.

“China is entering the coming months with a significant portion of its requirements already covered, which means it can afford to wait and assess prices, availability and trade conditions before increasing purchases,” Pliego said.

According to the analyst, December and the beginning of 2027 will be crucial for determining how Chinese demand is divided between Brazilian and U.S. suppliers.

Tariffs Factor Into Chinese Soybean Purchasing Decisions

According to Biond Agro, U.S. soybeans face a total import tariff of 13% in China, while Brazilian soybeans are subject to a 3% tariff. Buyers factor this difference into their cost comparisons alongside prices, availability and shipping schedules.

For the Brazilian market, the key question is how much of China’s remaining uncovered demand will be contracted before the arrival of the new harvest. The answer will help determine Brazil’s share of soybean sales to China and could influence export premiums.

In the United States, market participants will closely monitor the pace at which China contracts the remaining 11.3 million tonnes, given the potential implications for demand and soybean futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Source: Portal do Agronegócio

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