China predicted to import 106 mln tonnes of soybeans in 2025/26

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) office in Beijing has maintained its forecast for China’s soybean imports in the 2025/26 marketing year at 106 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes below the 2024/25 estimate of 107 million tonnes.

“The relatively stable import outlook reflects limited growth in crushing demand and Beijing’s ongoing efforts to curb the expansion of imports,” the USDA said in its report.

The USDA office in Beijing noted that China has yet to purchase any soybeans from the 2025/26 U.S. crop, amid ongoing trade tensions between the two countries. It added that Brazil shipped more than 10 million tonnes of soybeans to China per month between June and August.

See below a history of Brazilian soybean exports to China in tonnes from January 2022 to August 2025. The chart was prepared with DataLiner data:

Brazilian Soybean Exports to China | Jan 2022 to Aug 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

“In recent weeks, as Brazilian supplies have tightened and prices have risen, China has booked additional cargoes from Argentina and Uruguay to offset the lack of its normal seasonal purchases from the U.S.,” the USDA said. “Industry sources report that recent purchases, along with large commercial stocks built during the Northern Hemisphere summer, will provide an adequate imported soybean supply through mid-December.”

The USDA raised its forecast for crushing from 101 million to 103 million tonnes and slightly increased production from 19.8 million to 19.9 million tonnes. Domestic consumption was revised up from 124.4 million to 125.6 million tonnes in 2025/26, while ending stocks were cut from 47.37 million to 45.31 million tonnes.

Source: Agro Estadão

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