China set to import record volume of soybeans in 2026

Driven by growing demand from the feed industry and the rebuilding of domestic stocks, China is on track to repeat in 2026 the accelerated pace of soybean imports seen in 2025, when it reached historic levels. Projections for the new year point to volumes close to — or even higher than — recent records.

Brazil, the world’s largest supplier of the grain, is the primary beneficiary of this movement. With a large crop and competitive conditions in the international market, the country is expected to break the soybean export record once again.

Consolidated data for 2025 indicate that China imported more than 8 million tonnes of soybeans in November, a year-on-year increase of more than 13%. Year-to-date figures also showed significant growth, supported mainly by Brazilian shipments.

Below is a historical overview of Brazilian soybean exports starting from 2022. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Soybean Exports | Jan 2022 to Oct 2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Agricultural market analysts state that Chinese demand remains firm and should stay high in 2026. The animal protein industry, which is highly dependent on soybean meal, remains the main driver of this expansion.

In addition, the Asian country has increased strategic stockpiling to reduce risks associated with logistical and climatic volatility — reinforcing the trend toward high-volume purchases at the beginning of the year.

Brazil consolidates its position as the leading supplier

In Brazil, the 2025/26 cycle is expected to result in another record crop, with projections close to 178 million tonnes. The harvested volume ensures the country’s ability to meet external demand, especially from China, comfortably.

The leading market consultancies expect Brazilian exports to reach between 111 and 113 million tonnes in 2026, surpassing the record set in 2025.

China’s share of these sales remains dominant: more than three-quarters of the soybeans Brazil exported in 2025 were destined for the Chinese market, and the share is expected to remain similar this year.

Competition from the United States should not change the scenario in the short term

Despite trade understandings between Washington and Beijing indicating a possible resumption of U.S. soybean purchases, specialists believe the move will not significantly reduce Brazil’s share in 2026.

Brazil’s abundant supply, combined with more competitive prices and logistical predictability, keeps the country the leading destination for Chinese contracts.

In addition, adverse weather that affected part of the U.S. crop in 2025 reduced the volume available for export, increasing Chinese dependence on South America.

Pressures and risks for Brazilian agribusiness

The growth in exports, however, rekindles concerns about the sector’s strong external dependence. The concentration of sales in a single buyer — China — exposes Brazilian agribusiness to geopolitical risks and market fluctuations.

Another point of concern is infrastructure: shipping a record crop requires compatible logistics capacity. Bottlenecks in highways, railways, and ports continue to be identified as barriers to sustained export growth.

There is also increasing pressure for sustainable production practices, especially from European importers and international organizations. The expansion of the agricultural frontier, particularly in the Cerrado, remains at the center of the debate.

Outlook for 2026: another record year

With a whole crop, strong international demand, and expectations of a gradual recovery in global stocks, Brazil enters 2026 in a privileged position in the global soybean market.

China, in turn, is expected to maintain purchases at historically high levels. The combination of domestic needs, attractive prices, and relative stability in supplies creates the ideal environment for another cycle of strong imports.

If projections are confirmed, 2026 could consolidate the decade as one of the highest levels of commercial integration between the two economies in the agricultural sector — further strengthening mutual dependence in the grain segment.

Source: Paraná Central

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