Cocoa receipts in Brazil rise 61% in 2026, but grinding and exports remain under pressure

Cocoa bean receipts in Brazil posted strong growth in the first quarter of 2026 after two years marked by tighter supply in the domestic market. Data from SindiDados-Campos Consultores, released by the National Association of Cocoa Processing Industries (AIPC), showed volume of 28,605 tonnes, up 61.1% from the same period in 2025.

Despite the year-on-year increase, the volume remained below the levels seen during peak harvest quarters, reflecting the seasonal nature of production. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, receipts fell 52.1%, a pattern considered typical for the period.

Production remains concentrated in Bahia and Pará

Brazilian cocoa production remains heavily concentrated in two regions. Bahia and Pará accounted for 96.5% of national receipts in the first quarter of 2026.

Bahia led with 16,208 tonnes, equivalent to 56.7% of the total, up 38.9% from a year earlier. Pará posted a sharper increase of 169.7%, reaching 11,388 tonnes and expanding its share to 39.8%.

Other states played a much smaller role. Espírito Santo recorded a 53.6% drop, with 809 tonnes, while Rondônia rose 48.7% to 177 tonnes.

Grinding remains flat despite larger raw material supply

Despite the increase in receipts, industrial activity did not follow the same trend. Cocoa grinding in the first quarter of 2026 totaled 51,715 tonnes, down 0.8% from the same period in 2025 and virtually unchanged from the previous quarter.

The data point to a mismatch between supply and processing, indicating that the greater availability of beans has not been enough to boost the industry. According to AIPC, the main limiting factor at the moment is demand, both in the domestic and export markets, in addition to competitiveness challenges.

Imports fall as domestic supply rises

In foreign trade, Brazilian cocoa bean imports totaled 18,068 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, down 37.5% from the same period a year earlier.

Import data compiled by Datamar’s business intelligence team points to a similar trend in the unsweetened cocoa powder market: in the January-February 2026 period, imports rose 53% from the same period a year earlier. See more details below:

Cocoa Powder Imports | Jan 2023 – Feb 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The movement reflects the rise in domestic supply and a natural market adjustment, rather than trade restrictions. Weaker demand for cocoa derivatives has also contributed to the trend.

Cocoa derivative exports decline, signaling softer demand

Exports of cocoa derivatives totaled 12,557 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, down 15.4% year on year and 3.1% from the previous quarter. Argentina remained the main destination, accounting for 47% of exported volume, followed by the United States with 15% and Mexico with 8%.

The performance points to a more moderate international demand environment and stronger competition, limiting the expansion of Brazil’s cocoa industry in export markets.

Derivative imports weigh on domestic industry competitiveness

Imports of cocoa derivatives reached 12,166 tonnes in the period, virtually unchanged from a year earlier. The figure indicates that part of domestic demand continues to be met by imported products.

That dynamic adds pressure on Brazilian processors, which face cost and competitiveness challenges in a more contested global market.

Brazil remains dependent on value-added exports

Exports of raw cocoa beans remained marginal, with only 184 tonnes shipped in the first quarter of 2026. The figure confirms that Brazil is not a significant exporter of raw cocoa, relying instead on processing to sustain its presence in international markets.

Global cocoa prices fall sharply

In the international market, cocoa prices have remained on a downward path since the start of 2026. Contracts traded in New York and London have fallen about 50% in recent months, returning to levels close to the historical average of around $3,000 per tonne.

The decline follows the peak seen between late 2023 and 2024, when supply concerns pushed prices to record highs.

Global supply recovers and weighs on prices

The reversal in prices is linked to an improved global supply-demand balance. After three consecutive deficit seasons, the market has shifted into surplus. Estimates point to a deficit of about 490,000 tonnes in the 2023/24 crop year, followed by surpluses in subsequent seasons, suggesting a gradual rebuilding of stocks and a lower risk premium.

Production recovery in West Africa, especially in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, has played a central role in that shift, supported by more favorable weather and fewer phytosanitary problems.

Weaker demand also shapes the global market

Beyond supply, softer demand has also been a decisive factor behind the decline in prices. The earlier surge in cocoa prices led the industry to adjust formulations and reduce cocoa usage.

That trend became evident in the 7.7% drop in global grindings in the fourth quarter of 2025. Although there are signs of recovery, any rebound is likely to be gradual.

Outlook points to challenges for Brazil’s cocoa industry

The combination of higher domestic supply, weaker demand, stronger international competition and falling prices underscores the challenges facing Brazil’s cocoa chain. The sector begins 2026 with greater raw material availability, but still constrained by the industry’s ability to absorb it and by conditions in the global market.

The outlook points to continued price normalization, but also to the need for competitiveness gains if Brazil is to sustain industrial activity and expand its share in international trade.

Source: Portal do Agronegócio

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