Coffee industry hopes Lula–Trump talks could win U.S. tariff exemption

The coffee industry is optimistic about the possible meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva next week. For the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic), the prospect of the conversation signals an important step toward having the White House include coffee in the list of exceptions to the additional 50% tariffs. The measure has been in place since the beginning of August.

According to Abic’s executive director, Celírio Inácio da Silva, the initial assessment is that the tariff could be reduced, since U.S. coffee production is irrelevant.

During a press conference this Wednesday, the 24th, he noted that the U.S. produces only around 0.8% of what it consumes, in small areas in Hawaii and Puerto Rico. “Therefore, it makes perfect economic sense to remove the tariff,” he stressed.

The sector’s expectation is anchored in an executive order published by the U.S. government on September 6, which opens the door to tariff exemptions for products without significant domestic production, provided they are supported by bilateral negotiations. For Celírio, this provision strengthens Brazil’s position in the debate. He also emphasized that the issue has gained relevance in the U.S. due to the country’s inflationary impact.

Rising prices in the U.S.
As Agro Estadão reported, U.S. consumers have been facing a surge in coffee and beef prices — two items from Brazil’s agribusiness sector that were subject to tariffs by the Trump administration. “Coffee and the meat complex are extremely sensitive to U.S. inflation. It’s no coincidence that this decision came after intense mobilization by entities such as the National Coffee Association, which have shown the U.S. government the effects of rising coffee costs for consumers, who are the majority, as 76% of Americans drink coffee daily,” he said.

Check below a historical overview of Brazilian green coffee exports to the United States starting from January 2022. The chart was prepared with DataLiner data:

Brazilian Green Coffee Exports to the United States | Jan 2022 to Jul 2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Abic president Pavel Cardoso emphasized that, beyond cultural and political appeal, economic arguments were key in raising awareness in Washington. According to him, the Brazilian sector presented figures that make clear the interdependence between the two countries. “Coffee should have been included in this exemption from the start, and now we have a concrete signal that this could be corrected within the framework of bilateral negotiations,” he noted.

Abic believes that confirmation of the tariff’s removal will depend on the outcome of diplomatic talks between the Brazilian and U.S. governments. A meeting between the two presidents should provide greater clarity on the matter. “There’s a sense that we are on the right path. The sector did its part, mobilizing counterparts in the U.S. and showing with solid data the weight of coffee for the American consumer and for its economy,” said Celírio.

Source: Agro Estadão

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