Conflict Between Iran and Israel Puts Brazil’s Fertilizer Market on Alert

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, marked by attacks between Iran and Israel, has raised concerns in Brazil’s fertilizer market—particularly among the country’s farmers. This is because around 17% of Brazil’s urea imports come from Iran.

Jeferson Souza, a market intelligence analyst at Agrinvest, highlights that Iran produces around 9 million tons of urea annually and exports between 4.5 million and 5.5 million tons. This makes it a major player in the region’s fertilizer trade.

“For Brazil, conflicts of this nature—especially involving such key players—always raise concerns, particularly for farmers,” said the analyst.

Generally, Brazilian farmers rely on the international market for more than 80% of their fertilizer requirements. When it comes to urea specifically, dependence is even greater. According to Souza, in the past year, 100% of the urea consumed in Brazil was imported.

“Therefore, any developments like this in the Middle East can directly impact farmers’ production costs,” he warned.

This time of year is critical for Brazilian farmers as they begin purchasing inputs for the upcoming summer planting season, which starts in September. In some cases, they are even buying fertilizers, crop protection products, and seeds in advance for the 2026 second harvest (safrinha).

Furthermore, the recent spike in international fertilizer prices—without a corresponding increase in agricultural commodity prices—has once again squeezed farmers’ profit margins.

According to the monthly agribusiness report from Itaú BBA, the fertilizer-to-grain price ratio—an indicator of how many sacks of grain are required to purchase one ton of fertilizer—has reached levels comparable to those seen at the peak of the Ukraine war crisis in 2022.

Source: Globo Rural

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