Corn Exports Off to a Slow Start in June but Expected to Accelerate in H2, Analysts Say

June corn exports significantly lower than last year
Brazil’s corn exports posted weak results in June, with volumes substantially lower than those seen in the same month last year. According to data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), Brazil exported only 234,682.3 tonnes of unground corn (excluding sweet corn) in the first 14 business days of June. This represents just 27.58% of the total exported in June 2024, when shipments reached 850,892.8 tonnes.

Sharp decline in daily export average
The current daily export average stands at 16,763 tonnes — a 60.6% drop compared to the 42,544.6 tonnes per day recorded in June 2024. Although this sluggish pace is a concern for the sector, there is optimism about a rebound in the second half of the year.

Positive outlook for the second half
Anderson Galvão, director at Céleres Consultoria, predicts that both domestic sales and export volumes will pick up in the second half of 2025. “Brazil’s primary corn outlet is the export market, and we’ve revised our forecast for the 2025/2026 cycle from 47 to 48 million tonnes,” he stated.

Revenue drops along with export volumes
From a financial standpoint, Brazil has earned USD 66.944 million from corn exports so far in June, compared to USD 170.7 million for the entire month of June 2024. The daily average revenue dropped 44%, from USD 8.53 million to USD 4.78 million per business day.

Average price per tonne rises despite lower sales
Despite the drop in volume, the average price per tonne rose 42.2% compared to June 2024, climbing from USD 200.60 to USD 285.30. This increase reflects higher global market valuations for Brazilian corn, which has partially offset the decline in shipments.

Outlook for the coming months
Although early June exports have fallen short of expectations, Brazil’s corn market is expected to regain momentum as the harvest progresses and demand rises in the second half of the year. Producers and analysts are closely monitoring weather conditions and international prices to fine-tune their commercial strategies.

Source: Ponta Porã Informa

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