Cotton: Brazil retains export leadership despite output decline

Despite a backdrop of moderate demand, Brazil is set to maintain a central role in the global cotton market in the 2025/26 season, according to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea).

Researchers note that national output may post a slight decline from the previous record, but is still expected to be the second-largest on record. Even so, exports remain firm and continue to be the main outlet for Brazilian production.

“Depending on productivity performance, the reduction in planted area in the Center-South is likely to be partially offset by expansion in the North and Northeast,” Cepea said in a report, citing estimates from state crop agency Conab. Cepea analysts also highlight that Brazil continues to stand out internationally due to its production scale and competitiveness, as well as advances in traceability and sustainability.

In the field, the cotton planted area in the 2025/26 crop is expected to edge up just 0.7% from the previous season, reaching around 2.1 million hectares, according to Conab. The modest increase reflects a 4% expansion in the North and Northeast, while the Center-South is expected to see a slight 0.4% contraction.

Average yields are projected to decline to about 1.9 tonnes per hectare, down 3.5% year on year. As a result, total cotton output is forecast at 3.96 million tonnes, roughly 2.9% lower than last season.

Even so, Brazil is expected to remain the world’s largest cotton exporter. Shipments are estimated at 3.157 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, up 11.4% from the previous crop and nearly 19% higher than projected U.S. exports, at around 2.656 million tonnes.

The chart below shows the year-on-year performance of Brazilian cotton exports. The data featured below was collected and processed by Datamar’s Business Intelligence team.

Brazil Cotton Exports | Jan 2022 – Nov 2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

On the profitability front, however, the outlook is more challenging. According to Cepea, exchange-rate movements remain a key factor shaping returns, making close monitoring of export parity relative to domestic prices essential for decision-making.

Source: Agro Estadão 

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