Dairy imports rise and deepen Brazil’s sector deficit

Brazil’s trade balance for milk and dairy products showed a new imbalance in October, with an increase in imports and a decline in exports, according to data from Embrapa Dairy Cattle. Foreign purchases totaled 262 million equivalent liters, up 8.2% from September, while the 12-month cumulative increase stands at 2.3%. Exports, meanwhile, fell 23% in the month to 4.4 million equivalent liters and have accumulated a 0.7% decline over 12 months.

See below a historical overview of Brazilian powdered milk exports from January 2022; the chart was prepared with DataLiner data:

Brazilian Powdered Milk Exports | Jan 2022 to Sep 2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

With this trend, the sector’s trade balance in 2025 remains negative, reaching 1.754 billion equivalent liters, representing a deficit of US$802 million. The international scenario also remains unfavorable for foreign sales: whole and skim milk powder prices remain below the peaks seen between 2022 and 2023, reducing Brazilian competitiveness and making imports more attractive.

The combination of strong foreign purchases and reduced shipments continues to pressure the domestic industry, which faces high production costs and lower competitiveness in the global market. If this situation continues, the deficit could grow even further in the coming months.

Source: O Presente Rural com informações Cileite/Embrapa

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