End of China quota could curb beef exports and pressure cattle market, Abiec says

The Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (Abiec) projects that, if the current pace is maintained, Brazil’s beef export quota to China will be exhausted between late May and mid-June. The assessment was made by the association’s president, Roberto Perosa, on Tuesday (May 5) during a meeting with journalists at the group’s headquarters.

Datamar data shows that Brazil exported 7,780 TEUs of beef to China in January 2026, marking a 4.8% year-over-year (YoY) increase. The following chart, compiled using intelligence from the DataLiner platform, details the monthly outbound shipments of Brazilian beef to the Chinese market:

Beef Exports to China | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Against that backdrop, the sector is looking for alternatives to absorb the volume that would no longer be shipped to the Chinese market. One of the main bets is stronger domestic consumption in the second half of the year. According to Perosa, however, one factor has been limiting that potential: the growth of online betting in Brazil.

According to the executive, representatives of the meat sector and the Brazilian Association of Self-Service Wholesalers met on Monday (May 4) with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin to present data from a Nielsen study. The survey indicates that food consumption among lower-income families fell 10%, partly because of increased spending on betting.

Although beef consumption has not yet been directly affected, and has even continued to rise, Perosa said that growth could have been stronger without that factor. For that reason, the sector asked the government to adopt measures to restrict online betting, including tougher action against illegal platforms and limits on advertising on social media.

If the surplus is not redirected to other markets, Abiec estimates that Brazilian beef exports could decline about 10% in 2026. That movement would tend to pressure the cattle market, with a possible slowdown in slaughter rates and lower cattle prices in the coming months.

Alternatives

Beyond the domestic market, the United States appears as an alternative to expand exports. Brazil, however, has already exhausted its export quota to that market, and shipments are now taking place outside the quota, which reduces competitiveness. According to Perosa, the U.S. quota would need to be expanded to make further growth viable.

The opening of new markets is also seen as strategic. Countries such as South Korea, Japan and Turkey are viewed as potential destinations capable of offsetting any reduction in Chinese purchases. Among them, Japan has the most advanced talks. A Japanese technical mission visited southern Brazil in April to assess the country’s sanitary system for a possible market opening.

Mercosur-EU agreement and Middle East war

Regarding the Mercosur-European Union agreement, which entered into force last Friday (May 1), Perosa said the initial impact is likely to be limited. According to him, it is still necessary to move forward on defining the division of quotas among the bloc’s member countries.

Another point of concern is the conflict in the Middle East, a region that accounts for about 15% of Brazilian beef exports. According to the association, shipments to the region fell 20% in March and 10% in April. In addition to lower volumes, the sector is also facing higher freight costs and logistics restrictions.

Even so, the expectation is that the effects of the conflict will gradually fade over the coming months, as trade flows slowly normalize.

Source: Canal Rural

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