FAS: Argentina wheat crop revised higher

Although Argentina’s wheat crop in the 2026-27 marketing year is expected to decline by 23% from last year’s record total, it has been revised higher by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture in its latest report.

The FAS increased its production estimate to 21.6 million tonnes, 600,000 tonnes higher than its initial forecast issued in April. The revision reflected an additional 200,000 hectares planted, bringing the harvested area to 6.6 million hectares, the FAS said.

“Favorable weather in regions that had previously experienced less-than-ideal conditions, together with lower prices for key agricultural inputs, incentivized farmers to expand late-season planting,” the FAS said. “By mid-July, more than 90 percent of the crop had been planted. Although the estimated harvested area is only slightly below last year, production is forecast 6.3 million tonnes lower. This decline is largely explained by the exceptional yields achieved in 2025-26, when excellent weather conditions resulted in the best wheat crops on record.”

Argentine wheat exports were also revised higher to 15.5 million tonnes, a 500,000-tonne increase from the April projection. The FAS noted that wheat exports for 2025-26 (ending November 2026) are now projected at 18.5 million tonnes, 500,000 tonnes below its previous forecast but still easily an all-time high.

“Although the crop was record large, protein levels were generally lower than normal, limiting its suitability for markets that require higher-quality milling wheat,” the FAS said. “Brazil, traditionally Argentina’s largest wheat customer, is expected to import approximately 4 to 4.5 million tonnes, somewhat below its typical purchases from Argentina. A similar situation has reduced export opportunities in Eastern African markets, where demand is concentrated on higher-protein wheat.”

Domestic wheat consumption in Argentina in 2026-27 is forecast at 7.65 million tonnes, 250,000 tonnes above the previous FAS projection. The agency said the increase reflected “continued strong cattle returns and the availability of large stocks of lower-quality wheat, some of which is expected to be used as livestock feed.”

Source: World-Grain

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