Fertilizer Import Talks for Soybean Crop to Intensify in April

With lower input prices and a favorable exchange rate for farmers, fertilizer negotiations for the 2024/25 soybean crop are expected to pick up the pace in the second quarter of the year, according to the Argus consultancy.

Farmers remain cautious, making fertilizer purchases selectively, hindering deal closures in the first three months of the year. However, acceleration is projected from April.

“Last year, importers postponed deals to the third quarter due to increased carryover stocks, and farmers delayed transactions to cover soybean needs,” explained the report released on Wednesday (17/01).

The “minor” purchases shaping the January scenario are consistent with the pattern seen in 2023; however, the primary cause of last year’s backdrop was the high cost of the NPK package, whereas this year’s scenario developed from extreme weather, leading to delayed planting and crop losses, particularly in Mato Grosso.

See below the month-on-month volume of Brazilian fertilizer imports. The data used in the chart below is from the DataLiner platform.

Brazilian Fertilizer Imports | Jan 2019 – Nov 2023 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

“The low activity may be a reflection of higher carryover stocks, which could reach 10.3 million tonnes,” projected Argus.

Given that MOP prices have decreased more than phosphates, the consultancy claims that exchange rates for potassium chloride are more advantageous for farmers.

Source: Globo Rural

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