How Brazil came within striking distance of overtaking the U.S. as the world’s top farm exporter

Brazil came close to surpassing the United States as the world’s top farm exporter in 2025. During the year, Brazilian agribusiness exported a record $169.2 billion in sector products, compared with $171.3 billion exported by the United States.

The official figures come from Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“There is no doubt that the results could be considered a statistical tie,” economist José Roberto Mendonça de Barros of MB Associados said.

The gap stood at $2.1 billion, or 1.2%, in favor of the United States, equivalent to just 4.5 days of Brazilian exports. According to the economist, Brazil remains on a growth trajectory, unlike the United States.

Leader in commodities

For Carlos Cogo of Cogo Inteligência em Agronegócios, Brazil is already the leader in agricultural commodity exports overall. According to him, the methodologies used by the USDA and Brazil’s ministry differ, and the U.S. figures include a broader range of products.

Under the category “Ag Specialties,” the U.S. agency includes prepared foods, as well as wine, beer and various manufactured products.

“When the baskets are aligned, Brazil would already have been in the lead since 2024, at least in commodities. What matters most, however, is the trend. Very soon we will take the lead regardless of the methodology used,” he said.

Cogo also cited an analysis published in 2025 by Insper Agro Global, titled “Brazil becomes the world’s largest exporter of agricultural commodities,” which reached the same conclusion.

“Brazil keeps growing, whether in cotton, pork or other products. What stands out is the sustained pace. Between 2000 and 2024, our growth rate was 8.6%, compared with 5.3% for the Americans, whose exports fell over the last two years,” he said.

Datamar commercial intelligence, sourced from its flagship DataLiner platform, highlights that Brazil exported 47,242 TEUs of cotton industry products during the opening bimonthly period of 2026.

The following chart details the historical progression of Brazilian cotton exports:

Cotton Exports | Jan 2023 – Feb 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Tariff war

Brazil posted record agribusiness export revenue in 2025, up 3% from the previous year.

“The country set a record for agribusiness exports in 2025, even in a very challenging external environment,” said Luis Rua, secretary for foreign trade and international relations at Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry.

For example, trade policies under Donald Trump’s government hurt commerce between the two countries. After 110 days of tariff hikes, Brazil’s exports to the U.S. market fell from $12.08 billion in 2024 to $11.40 billion in 2025.

That represented a decline of $677.65 million, or 5.6%. On its own, that drop would not have put Brazil in the lead, but it would have narrowed the gap even further.

Historical trend

The comparison between Brazil and the United States in agricultural exports follows a broader structural shift. Between 2020 and 2025, the U.S. lead narrowed from $50 billion to the current $2.1 billion.

“U.S. agriculture is mature, run by older producers, and has been suffering from strategic competition with China, especially during the Trump administration,” Mendonça de Barros argued.

Historical data from the World Trade Organization make the trend even clearer. In 2005, the United States generated 137% more revenue than Brazil from agricultural exports. By 2025, that lead had shrunk to just 1.2%.

At the top?

The geopolitical environment in 2026 could favor Brazil overtaking the United States in agricultural export revenue. Mendonça de Barros pointed to the outbreak of war in the Middle East and worsening ties between the United States and China as the main factors.

“Brazil maintains a constructive relationship with China and with Asia more broadly. We are also continuing to diversify markets, including in Europe, with the recent Mercosur-European Union agreement,” he said.

In the case of the United States, those same relationships appear increasingly strained, with conflicting economic and geopolitical interests.

“More than anything, the China factor matters. The agreement between China and the United States for the purchase of 25 million tonnes of grains failed. The data show China bought only 8 million,” he said.

That situation could ultimately force U.S. agriculture to reduce its competition in the international market.

“There is pressure to raise biofuel blending mandates. Our view is that they may turn more toward the domestic market to absorb grain output,” he said.

For the Agriculture Ministry, meanwhile, the opening of 548 markets over the last three years reinforces the trend.

“Of the more than 550 markets opened in the last three years, at least 200 are already importing. That should further increase our agribusiness exports,” Rua said.

Fonte: Globo Rural

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