How Iran’s political tensions could affect Brazil’s corn trade

The threat by U.S. President Donald Trump to impose a 25% tariff on countries that do business with Iran has triggered a new wave of uncertainty in Brazil’s agribusiness sector and raised fears of a repeat of the sweeping tariffs previously applied by the United States to some Brazilian products.

If such a measure is implemented, Brazil could be affected. In 2025, the country exported nearly USD 3 billion in agricultural products to Iran, with corn standing out as the main item.

Data from Datamar’s DataLiner platform confirm that Iran was the leading destination for Brazilian corn in 2025. Between January and November 2025, approximately 6,298,845 tonnes were shipped in vessel holds to the Persian country. That volume accounted for about 20% of Brazil’s total corn exports.

Below is a month-by-month comparison of Brazilian corn exports to Iran based on data provided by Datamar.

Corn Exports to Iran | 2022–2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

According to Vlamir Brandalizze, of Brandalizze Consulting, despite Trump’s rhetoric, it is difficult to imagine food products being included on a list of goods subject to higher tariffs.

“It is still too early to say how this announcement could affect the corn trade. Trump said he would tax countries that do business with Iran, but I do not see him restricting corn or food trade in general, given that the Iranian population is already facing a difficult social situation,” he said.

Corn imported by Iran supplies the country’s domestic poultry industry, the fourth largest in Asia.

In a market note, Royal Rural analyst Ronaldo Fernandes said that “the market is already doing the math. If Brazil maintains this flow with Iran, it could fall under U.S. tariffs. If exports are reduced, there will be excess corn in the domestic market.”

However, Fernandes told Valor that it is unlikely the latest threat from Trump will materialize, as it could harm China. “Iran’s main trading partner is China. Trump has already agreed to a pause in tariffs with the Chinese until November, and he will not want to undo that now,” he said, noting that maintaining good trade relations with China is a priority for the United States, especially after Trump projected soybean trade of 12 million tonnes with the Asian country.

He also said that any potential tariffs would have limited short-term impact on Brazilian corn, as Iran’s strongest buying period typically occurs in June.

Impact of Imports

Iran is Brazil’s 11th-largest destination for agricultural exports, but its relevance to Brazilian agribusiness goes beyond what it purchases.

Data from Comex Stat, the trade data system of Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), show that imports of agricultural products from Iran totaled USD 84.5 million in 2025. The main item was urea, an essential input for the production of nitrogen fertilizers.

Urea alone accounted for USD 66.8 million of the total imported value during the year. Other products, such as pistachios, dried grapes, and other fruits, represented a much smaller share.

Brazil’s largest urea suppliers in 2025 were Nigeria, Oman, and Qatar. However, there is market suspicion that Iranian cargoes reach Brazil under other flags, given that Iran is already subject to international sanctions.

Source: Globo Rural; text adapted by the DatamarNews team

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