IBGE data shows agribusiness is only sector to show growth in first quarter

Data on Brazil’s GDP, released on Friday, May 29th by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), stated that agriculture was the only sector that registered growth in the first quarter of 2020, at 0.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.  A year-on-year comparison showed that agriculture grew by 1.9%.

According to the IBGE, this result can be explained, mainly, by the performance of certain crop harvests in the first quarter, such as soybeans. It can also be explained by an increase in the productivity of the planted area. Meanwhile, the country’s GDP decreased by 1.5% in the first quarter compared to year-ago levels.

Agribusiness expected to grow by 2.5% in 2020

Despite the new coronavirus pandemic, the GDP of Brazil’s agricultural sector is forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2020 year-on-year. This forecast is from the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea), based on data from IBGE. Taking into account the grain harvest estimated by the National Supply Company (Conab), the rate should reach 2.3%. Even in a scenario with a greater impact due to Covid-19, research projects an increase in the demand for agricultural products, albeit at a slower pace, of 1.3%.

For the 2019/20 harvest, the total estimates for grain production are 250.9 million tons – 3.6% (8.8 million tons) higher than the 2018/19 harvest. This is according to the 8th Survey of the 2019/20 crop released on May 12, by Conab.

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