Iran threatens to extend oil shipping disruption to Red Sea via Houthis

Iran has warned that its campaign to restrict global energy flows could expand from the Strait of Hormuz to the strategically important Red Sea route if U.S. attacks continue — a threat that would depend on its Houthi allies in Yemen.

With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz already severely disrupted by the war, the Red Sea has become a crucial alternative route for Gulf oil and other exports. A major disruption at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would raise the risk that the region’s two main oil export corridors could be blocked at the same time, placing further upward pressure on global crude prices.

Iran’s partial blockade of Hormuz following Israeli and U.S. attacks on February 28 halted most Gulf exports of oil and other goods, driving prices higher and triggering a global energy shock.

In response, Saudi Arabia diverted more than 70% of its usual daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks, up from approximately 973,000 barrels per day during the same period last year, according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean.

A total of 7.4 million barrels per day of crude and refined products passed through Bab el-Mandeb in June, equivalent to around 7% of global oil production, according to Kpler. Traffic through the strait stood at 4.2 million barrels per day in June 2025.

The route has become a lifeline for global energy markets, helping contain oil prices. Reuters reported last week that Saudi Arabia was considering extending its oil pipeline network to the Red Sea coast.

Any prolonged Houthi disruption to Red Sea shipping, including possible attacks on vessels or ports, would therefore pose a significant threat.

Following Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza, the Houthis began targeting Israel and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, saying their actions were intended to support the Palestinians.

The attacks caused widespread disruption to global shipping, prompting carriers including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to reroute vessels around Africa, a longer and more expensive journey.

A U.S.-led mission aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea carried out repeated strikes against Houthi targets and mounted a defensive campaign that intercepted hundreds of drones and missiles.

Despite those efforts, some Houthi attacks continued through last summer and stopped entirely only after the Gaza ceasefire took effect in October.

Last month, the Houthis said they would prohibit vessels linked to Israel from sailing through the Red Sea after Israel resumed military attacks against Iran. The threat was not carried out, however, and Maersk said last week that it and Hapag-Lloyd had resumed using some Red Sea routes they had abandoned during the earlier attacks.

While Hezbollah and Iran-aligned Shiite militias in Iraq quickly joined the conflict with rocket and drone attacks following the initial U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis have maintained a relatively restrained posture.

The group’s leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, said on March 5: “Our fingers are on the trigger at any moment, should developments require it.”

Iranian commanders have repeatedly warned that the Houthis could enter the war. On June 1, Esmaeil Qaani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, said the group could choke off shipping in the Red Sea.

So far, however, the Houthis have limited their involvement to several missile and drone attacks against Israel in late March and early April.

Analysts believe the group may have chosen to preserve the threat of closing the Red Sea as leverage for a future escalation. Another possibility is that it has sought to avoid entering the war to protect its long-standing truce with Saudi Arabia.

Image generated using artificial intelligence

Source: Valor Econômico

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