July drop in Brazil exports to U.S. not directly tied to new tariffs, MDIC says

The decline in Brazilian exports to the United States in July cannot be directly linked to the latest U.S. tariff increase, according to Herlon Brandão, director of foreign trade statistics and studies at Brazil’s trade ministry MDIC.

“The U.S. measure only came fully into force on July 29,” Brandão said at a press conference on Brazil’s July trade balance, which posted an overall surplus of $7.067 billion. “So it is not possible to attribute the entire July movement to the measure.”

According to Brandão, because sales did not increase in July, it is also not possible to say whether exporters brought shipments forward ahead of the tariff change.

The July decline was concentrated in aircraft and other equipment, including parts, down 62.2%; pig iron, down 31.4%; unroasted coffee, down 27.6%; and fruit or vegetable juices, down 22.5%.

According to containerized cargo data available on the DataLiner platform, Brazil’s coffee bean exports to the United States totaled roughly 5,591 TEUs, down 37.7% year over year. The chart below compares first-half volumes recorded in recent years:

Coffee Exports to the United States | H1 2022-2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Brazilian exports to the U.S. fell 5.0% in July 2026 and were down 12.2% in the first seven months of the year. Year to date, the drop was driven by lower sales of crude oil, down 25.5%; unroasted coffee, down 34.1%; fruit and vegetable juices, down 44.2%; and semi-finished iron and steel products, down 11%.

Brandão attributed the year-to-date decline in exports to the U.S. to broader economic conditions and demand. He noted, for example, that crude oil was not subject to higher tariff rates.

“Each product has its own dynamic, and I would say this was more a matter of demand and market conditions influencing the first-half result, including July,” he said.

Asked about the recent escalation of Brazil’s diplomatic tensions with the United States and Argentina, Brandão said economic policy affects trade flows only when it translates into concrete restrictive measures, such as tariffs, or, in the opposite direction, incentives to trade.

“When there is a concrete measure, that can influence flows. But in terms of the political relationship itself, I do not think it is possible to measure that in this movement,” he said.

Mercosur-EU agreement

Brandão also commented on the Mercosur-European Union trade agreement, saying there are now three months of data after the start of provisional application, but the figures should be interpreted cautiously.

“The tariff benefit is granted to the importer. So the exporter here ships the goods, and the importer in the European Union claims the reduction based on the agreement and origin. That is measured at destination, not at origin,” he said.

“We cannot assess how much this has influenced the figures, but it is expected that the agreement had some effect during the period,” he added.

Oil exports

Brandão also said the 23.8% increase in crude oil exports by value in July was driven entirely by a 38.3% rise in prices.

In the year to date, soybeans and crude oil were Brazil’s top export products, with growth of 15.3% and 26.9%, respectively. Soybean exports totaled $35.013 billion, while crude oil exports reached $32.597 billion.

Brandão said Brazil’s monthly export performance has remained “consistently above the months of 2025.”

Source: Jornal Primeira Página

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