Middle East war threatens Brazil’s beef exports

The war involving the United States and Israel against Iran could affect 30% to 40% of Brazil’s beef exports, according to the Brazilian Association of Beef Exporters (ABIEC).

Although the Middle East is the final destination for about 10% of the exported volume, or 250,000 tonnes, ports in the region serve as stopovers for ships heading to Asia and as unloading hubs for cargo that is then shipped onward by other modes of transport to countries such as China, the largest importer of Brazilian beef.

The following breakdown illustrates the monthly performance of Brazilian beef exports to the Middle East. The data covers the period from January 2023 to January 2026 and reflects Datamar’s surveyed figures obtained via its DataLiner platform:

Beef Exports to the Middle East | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

A survey of ABIEC’s member exporters revealed what the association’s president, Roberto Perosa, described as a “very serious” scenario. “The impact could reach 30% to 40% of our exports. We are very concerned,” he told Valor. He noted that the damage will depend on how long the conflict lasts and whether solutions are found to safeguard logistics flows in the region.

Brazil exported 3 million tonnes of beef in 2025. In the worst-case scenario, the conflict could disrupt the trade and transport of 1 million tonnes, Perosa said. The volume includes shipments to China and Southeast Asia. Logistics routes for shipping meat to the other side of the world include stopovers at ports in the region, such as Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Part of the cargo is redistributed overland to nearby markets. “All of this would have to be interrupted,” he said.

Some effects are already being felt. Ships carrying Brazilian beef are waiting at sea, unable to dock at Middle Eastern ports. Shipping companies have begun rejecting contracts to transport cargo to the region. Others still willing to take the risk have begun charging an extra fee—a so-called “war surcharge”—of $4,000 per container. “That makes exports unviable,” he said.

According to Perosa, there are no immediate alternatives to solve the problem, as there is no demand capable of absorbing the potential 1 million tonnes at risk. Nor are there specific requests to the federal government, since the solution lies far from Brasília, he argued. “The war makes 2026 even more challenging, a year already affected by the export quota to China. It could have a major impact on Brazil’s cattle industry because there is no demand to replace that volume,” he said.

According to some analysts and executives at meatpacking companies, one possible way to mitigate the problem would be to slow the pace of cattle slaughter in Brazil, as external demand has come under pressure. There are reservations about the effects such a move could have, including lower sector revenues and a drop in cattle prices.

Perosa declined to comment on that hypothesis but said the situation is another brake on business. “We are very concerned about a slowdown in Brazil’s cattle sector this year, given this new development affecting the market,” he added.

He said logistics costs for some shipments have already risen. “There are many cargoes at sea waiting because ships cannot dock. That costs money—they continue burning fuel and crews must still be fed,” he said. In addition, he noted, the rise in oil prices is affecting maritime freight contracts.

The situation prompted alarm among ABIEC members at a board meeting on Tuesday in São Paulo. “It is an acute concern. It is becoming a very challenging scenario,” he said. “We are seeing a significant reduction in markets for beef — not because of sanitary problems, since we are experiencing our best moment in that regard, but because of geopolitical factors that influence the destination of Brazilian meat and are beyond Brazil’s control.”

Chicken exporters have also been affected by the crisis. Companies are seeking ways to redirect ships originally bound for Middle Eastern countries—which would have had to pass through the Strait of Hormuz—to other markets in Africa and Asia, the president of the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA), Ricardo Santin, told GloboNews network on Tuesday. The Middle East is the main destination for Brazilian chicken exports.

Source: Valor International

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