New study maps challenges likely to shape Brazilian ports through 2035

Brazilian ports will have to prepare for a more volatile operating environment over the next decade, with climate change, geopolitical disputes, cyber risks and shifting trade flows expected to shape the sector through 2035, according to a new study approved by ANTAQ.

The project, called “Global Port Risks,” maps the main threats facing Brazil’s port system and is intended to guide long-term planning, regulation and investment decisions.

The study was developed under a technical cooperation agreement between ANTAQ, Brazil’s waterway transport regulator, and the Federal University of Maranhão. It is part of the agency’s Environmental and Waterway Safety Agenda for 2025-2026.

ANTAQ Director Alber Vasconcelos said the sector needs to move from reacting to problems to anticipating them.

“Brazilian ports operate in an increasingly complex environment exposed to rapid change. Anticipating risks is essential to strengthen planning, increase resilience and ensure regulation keeps pace with this new reality,” he said.

The study adapts the risk methodology used by the World Economic Forum to Brazil’s port sector. It draws on scientific literature, sustainability reports published by Brazilian ports and input from 125 port executives, managers and specialists.

Short-term risks

The report identifies six risks considered critical in the short term:

• political instability;
• geoeconomic conflicts;
• excessive regulation;
• higher tax burdens;
• disruptions to critical digital infrastructure;
• failures in global supply chains.

The study also found that 73.7% of the risks analyzed remain high in both the short and long term, suggesting that many of the challenges facing Brazilian ports are structural rather than temporary.

“More than identifying risks, this project offers guidance to strengthen the port sector’s ability to adapt. It turns diagnosis into planning and knowledge into better regulatory decisions,” Vasconcelos said.

Climate and technology pressures

Climate change appears as the main long-term environmental risk for Brazilian ports. The study points to extreme weather events, rising sea levels, coastal erosion, pressure on natural resources and the challenges of decarbonizing maritime transport as factors that could affect port infrastructure and operations.

Digital transformation is another major concern. As ports become more automated and connected, the report says the sector will need stronger cybersecurity, better protection for critical infrastructure, integration between digital and operational systems, and workforce training to deal with automation and artificial intelligence.

The economic risks include political instability, heavier regulation, higher taxes and loss of international competitiveness. On the geopolitical front, the study warns that trade disputes and changes in global shipping routes could alter cargo flows and affect port planning.

A guide for long-term planning

The report recommends that Brazil’s port sector adopt integrated strategies for climate adaptation and digital modernization, create a permanent risk-monitoring system, expand partnerships with universities and research centers, and incorporate risk management into port authorities’ strategic planning.

It also calls for financing mechanisms to support resilient infrastructure and workforce training.

ANTAQ said the findings will become part of its technical reference base for future regulatory policy. The study may also support the Ministry of Ports and Airports in designing public policies for the sector.

Within the agency, the results could be used in future assessments related to contract rebalancing, helping ANTAQ apply more evidence-based regulation as Brazilian ports adapt to global risks.

Source: Antaq

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