Pork sector bets on exports and domestic demand for recovery in 2026

The Brazilian pork market is experiencing oversupply and price pressure, but the industry expects a gradual recovery in the second half of 2026. The assessment was made by Marcelo Lopes, president of the ABCS, during an interview with Agência Safras News at AgroBrasília, held in PAD-DF.

According to the executive, the sector is currently dealing with animals above the ideal slaughter weight, reflecting a supply surplus relative to domestic demand.

Oversupply pressures pork prices

According to Marcelo Lopes, the current scenario remains challenging for producers, mainly because of the large volume of animals available on the market.

“The sector is experiencing a moment of oversupply, with overweight animals, but there is an expectation of improvement in the second half of the year, especially if demand increases,” he said.

Pressure on pork prices has been observed in several producing regions across the country, particularly affecting independent producers and operations with tighter margins.

Pork exports could ease domestic market pressure

The association expects export growth to help balance domestic supply and support a more consistent recovery in producer prices.

According to ABCS, Brazilian pork export performance remains positive and could expand into new markets over the coming months.

Among the factors considered strategic are:

* a possible expansion of exports to the European Union;
* stronger trade relations with Mexico;
* expectations for new and expanded business opportunities with Japan;
* The arrival of new international trade missions to Brazil.

Marcelo Lopes highlighted that the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union could create important opportunities for Brazil’s pork industry.

Take a look at the track record for Brazilian pork exports since January 2023. The following chart was compiled using intelligence from Datamar’s DataLiner platform:

Brazilian Pork Exports | Jan 2022 – Mar 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Domestic market could also strengthen in the second half

In addition to exports, the association is betting on stronger domestic consumption during the second half of the year as another support factor for the market.

This week, ABCS launched another edition of the National Pork Week campaign in São Paulo, aimed at encouraging pork consumption in Brazil’s retail sector.

The initiative seeks to increase pork availability in supermarket chains, strengthen promotional campaigns, and stimulate consumption among Brazilian consumers.

AgroBrasília highlights animal protein sector challenges

AgroBrasília has been consolidating its position as one of the country’s leading agribusiness events, bringing together strategic discussions on animal production, exports, technology, and sustainability.

Within the animal protein segment, the debate over balancing supply, demand, and international competitiveness remains at the center of market discussions.

Brazil’s pork sector remains one of the world’s most relevant industries in both production and exports, but it still faces challenges related to production costs, fluctuations in domestic consumption, and volatility in global markets.

Outlook points to a gradual recovery

Despite current price pressures, the sector expects a gradual recovery over the coming months, supported by strong exports and a possible rebound in domestic demand.

If the international scenario remains favorable and domestic consumption improves, the trend is for oversupply to decline and for the Brazilian pork market to regain balance.

Source: Portal do Agronegócio

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