Port of Santos could reach 2040 cargo levels by 2035, study says

Cargo throughput at the Port of Santos may grow faster than previously expected, with volumes initially projected for 2040 potentially being reached by 2035, according to a new study released on Tuesday (23) by Sopesp, the São Paulo State Port Operators’ Union.

The study, called Santos 10+, estimates that cargo throughput at Brazil’s largest port could rise from 196.7 million tonnes to 253.6 million tonnes in 2030 and 291.1 million tonnes in 2035. The increase could put additional pressure on both road access and the navigation channel serving the Santos port complex.

The report was prepared over eight months and included more than 20 interviews. It analyzed seven cargo groups: agricultural dry bulk exports and imports, mineral dry bulk, liquid bulk, containerized general cargo, non-containerized general cargo and ro-ro cargo, mainly vehicles.

According to Datamar data, container imports and exports rose 4.2% in the year to date (January-April 2026). The chart below shows the port’s monthly container export and import volumes:

Exports & Imports | Port of Santos | Jan 2023 – Apr 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

The Santos 10+ study also found that the port’s projected capacity would rise from 250.6 million tonnes to 309.1 million tonnes over the same period, narrowing the margin available to absorb further increases in demand.

According to the report, while traditional projections point to a roughly 20% increase in truck traffic linked to the port by 2035, the simulations carried out in the study indicate that the increase could reach as much as 136%.

The simulations looked at scenarios both with and without planned infrastructure projects in the region, such as adding a third lane to the Imigrantes highway, redesigning and expanding the Perimetral Avenue on the Guarujá side, and building the proposed immersed tunnel between Santos and Guarujá.

The analysis of the land access identified critical points in Alemoa, in Santos, and in the area around Rua do Adubo, in the Vicente de Carvalho district of Guarujá.

In the Valongo-Saboó area, where about 730 trucks currently circulate every hour, the study projects an increase of up to 1,431 vehicles per hour by 2035. Even with such works, some stretches are expected to face saturation over the next decade, with lower service levels and longer travel times.

For the navigation channel, the study expects vessel traffic to keep rising over the next decade. Daily ship movements are projected to climb from about 35 vessels in 2030, when the channel is operating at a depth of 15 meters, to roughly 41 vessels by 2035. This outlook assumes the channel is deepened to 17 meters and that the port complex expands its operating capacity.

According to the report, the Santos access channel is already approaching the threshold that is internationally used as a warning point for planning infrastructure expansion.

Source: A Tribuna

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