Russian Black Sea attacks choke Ukraine grain exports at peak harvest

More than four years ago, Ravil Dzhamally fled his farm in Ukraine’s Kherson region after Russian troops occupied the area. When Moscow’s forces were pushed back, he returned to clear mines from his fields and plant wheat, barley and sunflowers.

After investing his savings and borrowing from friends, the 38-year-old farmer barely covered his costs in 2025, his first harvest after returning.

Even so, he entered this year encouraged by the prospect of a strong crop. Weather conditions were favorable, and his 800 hectares, or 1,977 acres, escaped the drone attacks that burned some of his neighbors’ fields.

But before Dzhamally could ship his crops, intensified Russian attacks on the key Black Sea port of Odesa reduced Ukraine grain exports to a trickle.

“When we started harvesting, the outlook was very positive,” Dzhamally said in a phone interview. “But now we have been brought back to reality.”

Attacks on the Greater Odesa ports have dealt a severe blow to Ukraine’s agricultural sector, which underpins the country’s economy and plays an important role in global food security.

Ukraine is one of the world’s leading exporters of crops such as corn and wheat, and its seaports normally handle about 90% of grain shipments. Export flows, however, have nearly ground to a halt just as harvesting is in full swing.

Escalating hostilities between Kyiv and Moscow in the Black Sea helped push wheat prices to their biggest increase in two years last month, while disruptions to exports risk threatening food supplies in some developing countries.

On Wednesday, Russia’s Defense Ministry said its forces had struck two dry bulk vessels in the Black Sea southeast of Odesa the previous day.

Meanwhile, at least five grain vessels were attacked near the Russian Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse this week as Moscow also struggled to keep grain exports moving, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

The attacks have disrupted Ukraine’s agricultural shipments, which generate more than half of the country’s export revenue. Ukraine has exported only about 500,000 metric tons of grain since the beginning of August, roughly one-fifth of its potential shipments, Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said on Thursday.

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the sector employed more than 2 million people and accounted for more than one-tenth of Ukraine’s economic output.

“Agriculture is the most important sector for Ukraine,” said Evghenia Sleptsova, a senior economist at Oxford Economics. Its role has grown during the war as much of the country’s heavy industry has been destroyed by Russian attacks, she added.

Oxford Economics estimates that Ukraine could lose the equivalent of 1.8% of GDP this year and 2.1% in 2027. “In the event of a severe and prolonged disruption, Ukraine could lose the equivalent of 5.3% of GDP in 2027,” the report said.

Farmers left with few options

Dzhamally and other Ukrainian farmers now face an unenviable choice: hold onto their crops or sell them at steep losses into a depressed domestic market.

With much of the sector relying on crop sales to finance day-to-day operations, the situation is becoming increasingly desperate.

For now, Dzhamally is sitting on tons of unsold grain stored in 60-meter plastic grain bags stretched across his fields. The system could preserve the crop until March, but Ukraine could exhaust its total storage capacity by early November if export flows are not restored, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

The country could lose as much as $2.5 billion this year because of the export blockade, according to the National Bank of Ukraine. That could trigger widespread bankruptcies among farmers and further damage morale across rural regions.

“The situation is bleak,” said Oleksandr Havryliuk, who farms 3,000 hectares about 60 kilometers, or 37 miles, from the front line in the Kharkiv region.

Havryliuk does not have enough cash even to transport his grain to storage facilities and fears rain could destroy his crop, pushing him into financial ruin.

Ukraine’s domestic grain market is effectively frozen. The few transactions still taking place are being completed at prices equivalent to roughly one-third of global levels and well below what farmers say they need to cover production costs.

Although Ukrainian growers have faced severe difficulties before, they say this year’s crisis is substantially worse than the one that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, when Moscow’s armed forces blocked Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports.

The financial reserves that helped farmers absorb six months of disruption at the time have now been depleted.

Havryliuk is still repaying loans taken out in 2021 to buy farm machinery, much of which has since been destroyed in Russian airstrikes.

Local banks have refused to restructure his debt, while insurers told him war damage was not covered by his policy, he said.

Unable to sell his grain, he will try to borrow more money to stay afloat. Losing the current crop would probably mean bankruptcy and force him to sell the farm.

While Ukrainian farmers remain stuck with unsold grain, another problem is approaching: they need additional cash for the autumn planting season.

Without financial support, some say they may have to delay planting, reduce acreage or switch to crops that can be planted later.

Dzhamally plans to sell part of his harvest at a loss to cover overdue rent and farmworker wages. By the autumn, however, he will need to borrow more money to plant next season’s crops.

Alternative export routes cannot replace the Black Sea

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has approved subsidized loans for agricultural producers and is planning additional measures to increase storage capacity. Kyiv has requested a €220 million grant from the European Union to finance the measures.

The government is also trying to find alternative export routes, but westbound rail corridors have limited capacity, while low water levels are restricting traffic through Danube River ports. Both options are also more expensive than shipping through the Black Sea.

In 2022, overland routes through Eastern Europe provided an outlet for Ukraine’s agricultural sector. Solidarity with the country has weakened in recent years, however, with Polish farmers periodically blocking Ukrainian grain exports at border crossings.

The impact of the disruptions, particularly the bombardment of Odesa, is stark.

Wheat shipments could fall to 8.3 million metric tons in the 2026/27 season, down from a previous estimate of 17.6 million metric tons, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

Overall, Ukraine would be able to export only about 30 million metric tons of agricultural products this season even if it made full use of all alternative routes, leaving a similar volume in storage or potentially rotting in fields, Vysotskyi said.

“We are heavily dependent on the ports,” said Pavlo Martyshev, an agricultural economist at the Kyiv School of Economics, warning that a prolonged blockade would have wider consequences.

“There will be inflation, and GDP growth will slow.”

Foreign aid could mitigate only part of the impact, he said.

Government support and international assistance cannot replace lost export revenue, Martyshev said, although they may help most farmers withstand the Black Sea port blockade to some extent.

Agriculture’s geographically dispersed nature has been an advantage during the war, making it much harder to shut down production with drones and missiles, he added.

Still, drone attacks in Dzhamally’s neighborhood in Kherson forced him to move to nearby Mykolaiv and commute to the farm every day.

On weekends, Dzhamally can sometimes see his two daughters, who moved to Odesa early in the war.

Despite the difficulties, he said only a major escalation in the fighting would drive him away from his fields.

“This is my daughter, which I raised again from scratch,” Dzhamally said of his farm. “You have to treat her like a person and take care of her, hoping that she will grow and then take care of you.”

Source: Bloomberg Linea

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