Slow corn exports raise concern and pressure prices in Brazil

Brazil’s slow corn exports have been putting pressure on domestic prices. Despite a slight rise in international prices (averaging US$4.13/bushel in September), Brazilian corn remains cheap for sellers but expensive for buyers, according to a CEEMA report.

Between February and September, only 17 million tonnes were shipped—far below Conab’s forecast of 40 million and the 50 million needed to ease stockpiles. So far this year, exports total 24 million tonnes, compared with 37 million in 2024 and a record 56 million in 2023.

Brazilian Corn Exports | Jan 2022 to Jun 2025 | WTMT

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The average price in Rio Grande do Sul was R$61.91 per 60-kg bag, with regional variations ranging from R$47.00 to R$64.00. Buyers remain cautious and stockpiled, weakening the market and exacerbating the imbalance.

Summer corn planting in the Center-South has reached 32% of the projected area. Output is estimated at 25.6 million tonnes for this stage, according to AgRural and StoneX. Overall domestic demand is expected to exceed 91 million tonnes in 2025, driven by ethanol production.

In the first 20 days of September, Brazil shipped 6.6 million tonnes, with Anec estimating the full month at 7.3 million. The average export price per tonne rose to US$199.70. Even so, it has not been enough to relieve market pressure.

The situation is seen as atypical and may worsen by year-end, with potential further price declines. The sector is closely monitoring the pace of exports and trends in domestic demand.

Source: Agrolink

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