Smaller Orange Crop Cuts Juice Supply and Weighs on Brazil’s Exports

The 2025/26 orange crop in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo/Southwest Minas Gerais was estimated on Wednesday at 294.81 million 40.8-kg boxes, a 3.9% reduction from the previous forecast, according to a survey conducted by the Fundecitrus research fund.

The lower estimate — influenced by weather and disease factors, especially greening — will reduce Brazil’s expected juice supply. Brazil is the world’s largest producer and exporter of the commodity, the exporters’ association CitrusBR said.

“The two main reasons for the crop reduction are the decrease in fruit size due to lack of rain and the increase in the projected drop rate from 22% to 23%, caused by the growing severity of greening, the pace of the harvest, and weather conditions themselves,” Fundecitrus stated.

Even so, the crop in Brazil’s central citrus-producing region, which is home to processing industries, is expected to rise 27.7% compared with the previous harvest, which had been considered the second smallest in 37 years due to poor weather and the high incidence of greening — a disease with no cure that reduces orchard productivity.

“What this revised estimate shows is that dealing with weather issues is increasingly complicated. Even if a crop starts well, there is no guarantee it will develop and finish well,” said CitrusBR’s executive director, Ibiapaba Netto.

He noted that the crop shortfall compared with the initial estimate is 20 million boxes, something “quite significant because it changes the crop’s scale.”

Asked what this means for the industry in productive terms, he said the shift alters juice availability by somewhere between 65,000 and 70,000 tonnes, depending on industrial yield.

“What could help a bit would be a better industrial yield, which depends on weather… and there is no evidence that yield will offset this shortfall.”

“This ‘dries up’ product availability toward the end of the cycle…,” Netto added.

By mid-November, around 65% of the São Paulo and Minas Gerais crop had been harvested.

Prices decline
Despite the lower projection in Brazil, frozen concentrated orange juice futures in New York were down 1.7% in early afternoon trading, at US$1.54 per pound, but remain sharply lower after last year’s record high above US$5, when Brazilian orchards had a poor crop.

The surge to record price levels late last year weakened global demand, allowing ending stocks from the previous crop to recover by more than 25%, according to a September survey released by CitrusBR.

Despite falling prices this year — now at their lowest levels since 2022 — Brazilian orange juice exports fell 12.29% in the 2025/26 season (July to November) to 367,000 tonnes compared with the same period a year earlier.

The decline is driven mainly by demand in Europe, the former largest destination for Brazilian exports, which the United States has now overtaken.

“Europe is seeing demand drop because of last year’s prices. Orange juice is a highly ‘elastic’ product — when prices rise, consumption falls…,” Netto said.

Asked whether European consumption might rebound now that prices are lower, the executive director acknowledged the possibility.

“The issue is the timing. Often the rebound is slower, but it does come,” he said.

In revenue terms, Brazilian orange juice exports recorded an even sharper decline, falling 25% to US$1.2 billion year-on-year, according to CitrusBR.

Source: Investimentos e Notícias (Com Reuters)

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