Tariff hike cost Brazilian agribusiness USD 240 million in exports to the United States

The reversal of the additional 40% tariffs imposed by the United States involves USD 240 million in Brazilian agribusiness exports. A survey by Globo Rural using Comex Stat data shows that this was the amount lost between August and October of this year, compared with the same period in 2024, when the surtaxes were not yet in effect.

The amount considers negotiations involving coffee, meat, coconut water and fresh fruit (bananas, melons, papayas and mangoes).

The pattern is similar: growth before the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, between January and July 2025, followed by slowdown and decline after the measures, in the period from August to October, when compared with the same interval in 2024. Fresh fruit, however, registered a decrease in both windows.

Sérgio Vale, chief economist at MB Associados and consultant to the Brazilian Agribusiness Association (ABAG), reinforces the need to monitor the commercial relationship between the countries in the post-tariff scenario.

“The trend is toward increased exports in volumes of coffee, beef, fruit and other exempted products. We will still need to check the volumes shipped before and after the tariffs to be certain about possible losses or gains in market share,” he evaluates.

Bruno Corano, economist at Corano Capital, believes the tariffs were positive for some of these sectors. “From a pragmatic perspective, in a way the tariffs were positive, because Brazilian exporters made an effort to open new pathways. Some industries were more successful, others less,” he says.

Corano expects price pressure on coffee with the easing of tariffs. “Coffee prices are high, even in the domestic market, due to a smaller-than-expected harvest. Therefore, the opening or reopening of the market presents the risk of downward price pressure, which is already high,” he evaluates.

Coffee recorded significant growth in the accumulated period from January to July: exports rose 34.6%, from USD 966.7 million in 2024 to USD 1.3 billion in 2025. However, between August and October, with the tariff hike, the sector lost momentum, falling 16.7% from USD 428.3 million in 2024 to USD 356.7 million in 2025.

Marcos Matos, director-general of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), also celebrated the decision announced last Thursday (11/20). “The fear was that the scenario would become irreversible, with the loss of participation in blends and importers signing contracts with competitors. The change restores fairness to the market. We will work quickly to regain space and resume all exports,” he said.

See below the history of Brazilian green coffee bean exports to the United States starting in January 2022. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Exports of Green Coffee Beans to the United States | Jan 2022 to Sep 2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Dependence of the United States on Brazilian meat
For beef, Bruno Corano recognizes greater dependence of the United States on Brazil, which maintains a consistent supply of meat. “In the case of meat, the United States is the biggest beneficiary. The American herd has been declining over the last ten years and demand for meat is rising. Therefore, there is significant dependence on the import of Brazilian beef. The reestablishment of Brazil increases the country’s potential in terms of foreign trade,” he states.

In the case of fresh, chilled or frozen beef, sales more than doubled in the first seven months of this year, rising 118% from USD 395 million in 2024 to USD 861.6 million in 2025.

However, in the quarter in which the 50% tariffs were in force, there was a strong decline: exports fell 53.7% from USD 297.5 million (2024) to USD 137.9 million (2025).

The Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (Abiec) celebrated the US executive order removing tariffs on beef. “The reversal reinforces the stability of international trade and maintains balanced conditions for all countries involved, including for Brazilian beef.”

The Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of Mato Grosso (Famato) also celebrated the decision that reverses the surtaxes imposed on Brazil. The entity considers that the measure ensures greater competitiveness and predictability in foreign trade, with longer and more stable contracts.

In a statement, the federation classified Executive Order 14,323 as positive for the beef supply chain. “The livestock sector in Mato Grosso celebrates this reversal of tariffs. We hope that this new scenario of dialogue will help expand exports, consolidate partnerships and strengthen regional agribusiness, driving the economic growth of Mato Grosso and Brazil,” said superintendent Cleiton Gauer.

See below the history of Brazilian beef exports to the United States starting in January 2022. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Beef Exports to the United States | Jan 2022 to Sep 2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Coconut water and fresh fruit
In the case of coconut water, the exported value increased 54.9% from USD 24.4 million in 2024 to USD 37.8 million in 2025. Meanwhile, between August and October, the sector fell 25%, from USD 18.2 million (2024) to USD 13.7 million (2025).

On the other hand, exports of fresh fruit — bananas, melons, papayas and mangoes — fell in both analyzed periods. Between January and July, the sector totalled USD 3.7 million in external sales in 2025, compared with USD 5 million in the same period the previous year (-26.2%).

In the post-tariff period, from August to October, the amount dropped from USD 30.1 million in 2024 to USD 25.9 million in 2025, a decrease of 14%.

Even with the drop in value, the quantity of fresh fruit exported increased 36% in volume. This year, shipments totaled 36.4 thousand tonnes versus 26.8 thousand in 2024. Considering the average price of the products, the value fell from USD 1.315/kg to USD 0.815/kg in 2025 (-38%).

Source: Globo Rural

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