Trade balance posts lowest June surplus in six years

Pressured by falling prices of various commodities—primary goods with international pricing—and increased imports, Brazil’s trade balance recorded the lowest June surplus in six years. Last month, the country exported US$5.889 billion more than it imported, a 6.9% decrease compared to the same month in 2024.

The figures were released this Friday (July 4) by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services (Mdic). June’s surplus is the lowest since 2019 when the positive result totaled US$4.362 billion.

The trade balance has accumulated a surplus of US$ 30.092 billion in the first six months of 2025. This figure represents a 27.6% drop compared to the same period last year and is the lowest for the semester since 2020 when the surplus reached US$22.295 billion.

Part of the decline in accumulated value occurred because the trade balance recorded a deficit of US$471.6 million in February due to the importation of an oil platform.
Exports increased slightly, but imports rose even more. In June, Brazil exported US$ 29.147 billion, up 1.4% compared to the same month last year. This is the third-highest value in history, behind only June 2022 and 2023.

Below is a historical overview of Brazilian container imports from January to May, covering the years 2022 to 2025. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Container Imports | Jan–May 2022–2025 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Imports totaled US$ 23.257 billion, up 3.8% year-over-year. This is the second-highest historical figure for the month, behind only June 2022.
When analyzing the exported volume and average prices, the volume of exported goods increased by 6.1%. However, prices fell by an average of 4.3% compared to the same month last year, reflecting a decline in commodity prices. On the import side, volumes increased by 5.8%, driven by economic growth, while average prices dropped by 1.1%.

Products
On the export side, soybeans—the primary agricultural product—fell 12.5% from June last year, primarily due to a 9% decline in average prices. The volume sold declined by 3.9%. Additionally, corn—the second most exported agribusiness product—fell 56.6%, despite a 29.7% increase in average price.
Oil exports declined by 2.1%, primarily due to a 15.2% price drop, although volumes increased by 15.5%. Iron ore exports fell 8.6%. While volumes increased by 9.8%, prices dropped by 16.7%.

However, increases in coffee prices—up 56.1% in 12 months—and beef—up 22%—helped support the trade balance. Sales of certain products, including vehicles, gold, and semi-finished steel products, increased last month, offsetting declines in other exports.

On the import side, purchases of non-electric engines and machinery, organo-inorganic compounds, aircraft and aircraft parts, and insecticides increased. The highest jump was in engines, with purchase values rising by US$ 251.4 million (37.5%) in June compared to the same month last year.

Sectors
In the agricultural sector, lower sales volumes weighed more heavily on the 10% drop in segment exports. The volume of shipped goods fell 12.4% in June compared to the same month in 2024, while average prices rose 3.6%.

In the manufacturing industry, volumes rose 14.7%, with average prices down 3.3%, reflecting a partial economic recovery in Argentina, Brazil’s main buyer of industrial goods.

In the extractive industry—which includes ore and oil exports—volumes rose 9.6%, while average prices fell 14.8% due to China’s economic slowdown and the escalation of trade tensions by the Donald Trump administration.

Forecast
The Mdic has revised its projections for the trade balance this year. The surplus is expected to reach US$50.4 billion, a 32% decrease from 2024. The next forecast will be released in October.

According to Mdic, exports are expected to grow 1.5% this year compared to 2024, ending the year at US$341.9 billion. Imports are expected to rise 10.9%, totaling US$ 291.5 billion. These projections are the first to account for the effects of Donald Trump’s tariff policy and China’s retaliatory measures.

The outlook is much more pessimistic than that of the financial market. The Focus bulletin—a weekly survey of market analysts published by the Central Bank—projects a surplus of US$ 73 billion for this year.

Source: Agência Brasil

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