Trump tariff could cost Brazil’s orange juice industry up to R$4.3 billion

The 50% tariff on Brazilian orange juice exports to the United States, set to take effect this Thursday, August 1, could lead to an annual impact of up to US$792 million — the equivalent of R$4.3 billion — for Brazilian industry. The figure represents a 456% increase over the taxes paid during the 2024/25 harvest, which totaled US$142.4 million, according to the National Association of Citrus Juice Exporters (CitrusBR), based on data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex).

The estimate is based on the performance of the harvest ending June 30 and includes market access tariffs for the U.S. market. On a global scale — considering all tariffs levied by different markets — the total taxes paid by the sector are expected to jump from US$ 393.6 million to US$ 1.3 billion, factoring in major export destinations such as the United States, European Union, Canada, Japan, and China, as well as the United Kingdom, Norway, Switzerland, and Russia.

In the 2024/25 season, the United States was the second-largest destination for Brazilian juice exports, accounting for 41.7% of the total, second only to Europe. A total of 307,673 tonnes were exported — the equivalent of about 85 million 40.8-kilo boxes — generating US$1.31 billion in revenue.

Below is a historical overview of Brazilian orange juice exports to the United States starting from January 2022. The chart was created using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Orange Juice Exports to the U.S. – Jan 2022 to May 2025 – WTMT

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Currently, Brazil pays a flat tariff of US$415 per tonne to export to the U.S. Based on last season’s volumes, this cost totaled US$142.4 million. The projected US$792 million impact considers the cumulative effect of the new 50% tariff alongside an additional 10% rate announced in April.

Even if the new tariff replaces — rather than adds to — the existing 10% rate, the impact would still be significant, with an estimated increase of US$635 million per season, a 345.8% rise compared to the current scenario. According to CitrusBR, “there are no short-term markets capable of absorbing this additional volume, which could place the sector in a difficult position.”

Source: Globo Rural

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