U.S.–China talks fuel concern across Brazil’s soybean supply chain

Since February of this year, when the tariff war between the United States and China began, the two countries have not been this close to returning to the negotiating table. If this rapprochement materializes, it could create an adverse scenario for Brazilian soy, with likely a slowdown in export volumes and a decline in prices for a crop still in its early planting stage.

Up to now, U.S. soybeans have been losing market share in China — a development that has benefited Brazil. On Monday (10/20), Chinese customs authorities reported that in September, the first month of the U.S. harvest, China did not import a single soybean from the United States. The last time China went an entire month without importing U.S. soybeans was in November 2018.

China imported 10.96 million tonnes of soybeans from Brazil, a 30% increase compared with September 2024. The volume accounted for 85% of China’s total soybean imports last month.

Below is a comparative chart of Brazilian soybean exports to China for the first eight months of the year over the last four years. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Soy Exports to China | January to August 2022–2025 | WTMT

Source: DataLiner (Clique aqui para solicitar uma demo)

U.S. President Donald Trump said in early October that he plans to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Trump said the soybean trade will be one of the topics on the agenda.

Even though tensions between the United States and China have escalated in recent weeks, Ronaldo Fernandes, an analyst at Royal Rural, says the recent public statements suggest both countries are working toward a deal.

“Every time tensions escalate, countries create a problem to later offer the solution. The United States is interested in China’s rare earth minerals, and China can use that to its advantage by offering a small allocation in exchange for purchasing U.S. soybeans. China has that bargaining power today, as it has already shown it can go a long time without buying its soybeans,” said Fernandes.

The end of the trade war, he continues, could negatively affect Brazilian soy. The first impact would be lower export volumes. From January to September 2025, China accounted for more than 77% of Brazilian soybean exports, and shipments rose 4.83% compared with the same period in 2024.

The components that make up Brazil’s soybean pricing would also be affected in the event of a trade agreement, Fernandes notes. “The dollar would fall, soybean prices in Chicago would rise, but port premiums would drop, with a risk of turning negative for February and March delivery next year. In other words, Brazilian soy would take a hit on all fronts,” he said.

With a weaker dollar, lower premiums, and unfavorable exchange dynamics, domestic soybean prices in Brazil would inevitably fall if the U.S. and China strike a deal. According to estimates by Luiz Pacheco of T&F Consultoria Agroeconômica, a 60-kg bag currently priced at R$131 in the interior of Paraná could drop to R$100. The premium — currently 167 positive points for October at the Paranaguá (PR) basis — could fall by 82%, according to his projection.

“Right now, Brazil is the pendulum between China and the United States in the soybean trade. If Brazil really produces 176 million tonnes in the 2025/26 crop year, as projected by the National Supply Company (Conab), China will have the leverage to stay out of the U.S. market for another year. But if Brazil faces weather problems, the bargaining power will shift back to the Americans,” Pacheco said.

Analysts also note that after the import boom seen from January to September, Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans has already lost momentum.

“This month, China bought only one vessel of soybeans from Brazil for November delivery. Demand remains weak, even though China still needs to import 9 million tonnes between December and January. They’re saying our soy is too expensive, but this may be a sign they’re waiting for some development with the United States,” said Pacheco of T&F.

Source: Globo Rural

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