U.S. tariff uncertainty affects Brazil fruit export planning

Brazilian fruit exporters are assessing potential impacts from a proposed tariff on products imported by the United States, with uncertainty affecting shipment planning ahead of the next export window.

According to the Valor Internacional portal, the U.S. government has signaled a possible tariff rate of 15 per cent. However, the absence of an official definition and ongoing changes in trade announcements have created uncertainty for exporters planning shipments.

For Brazilian fruit suppliers, competitiveness remains a concern, particularly in comparison with countries that export to the U.S. under lower tariff barriers. Even if tariff rates are reduced compared with previous scenarios, exporters report that trade conditions remain challenging, particularly for products affected by logistics and tax costs.

Brazil exports a range of fruits to the U.S., including mangoes, grapes, papayas, melons, and watermelons. The effects of tariff changes may vary depending on the product and the cost structure of each supply chain.

Data from the DataLiner platform, developed and operated by Datamar, shows that Brazil exported 4,513 TEUs of fruit to the United States throughout 2025. Compared to the same period the previous year, this figure represents a 19% year-on-year (YoY) decline in handled volume.

In January 2026, fruit exports to the U.S. totaled 62 TEUs. The following provides an overview of monthly volumes recorded for fruit exports to the United States:

Fruit Exports to the US | Jan 2023 – Jan 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Exporters report that the lack of clarity regarding the final tariff level is affecting decision-making across the export chain. Uncertainty is particularly relevant as the peak of Brazilian fruit shipments normally occurs during the second half of the year.

During this period, exporters must secure international contracts and coordinate logistics schedules in advance. The absence of clear trade conditions complicates these preparations.

Under the current situation, exporters are approaching foreign negotiations cautiously. Some companies are prioritising sales in the domestic market, while others are considering redirecting export volumes to alternative destinations until there is greater clarity regarding the rules governing access to the U.S. market.

Source: HFBrasil

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