USDA raises global coffee crop forecast, sees record consumption and exports

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has raised its forecast for global coffee production in the 2026/27 crop year to a record 189.7 million bags, driven mainly by larger harvests in Brazil, Vietnam, Ethiopia and Uganda.

The gains in those countries are expected to offset projected declines in India and Indonesia, according to the USDA’s semiannual coffee report released on Wednesday, July 22.

Indonesia’s crop is forecast to fall by 1 million bags to 11.4 million. Excessive rainfall has reduced robusta yields by disrupting fruit development in southern Sumatra and Java, which together account for 75% of the country’s coffee output.

The USDA also expects global coffee consumption and exports to reach record levels.

Consumption is projected at 179.7 million bags, with the largest increases coming from the European Union and the United States. Green coffee exports are forecast to rise by 11.9 million bags to 131.4 million.

Brazil’s crop forecast at record 71.9 million bags

The USDA expects Brazil to harvest a record 71.9 million bags of coffee in 2026/27, including 47.5 million bags of arabica and 24.4 million bags of canephora varieties, which include robusta and conilon.

The forecast represents a 14% increase from the agency’s estimate of 63 million bags for the 2025/26 crop.

Brazilian green coffee exports are projected to reach a record 45 million bags. The country’s ending stocks are expected to rise by 500,000 bags from the previous season to 4.4 million.

Container throughput data obtained by Datamar indicate that Brazil exported 41,356 TEUs of coffee beans between January and May 2026. The chart below shows the 10 main destinations for these shipments:

Top Destinations – Coffee Bean Exports | Jan-May 2026 | TEUs

Source: DataLiner (click here to request a demo)

Among other major producers, Vietnam’s crop is forecast at a record 32.5 million bags. Its exports are expected to rise to 25.4 million bags, while domestic consumption is projected to reach an all-time high of 5 million.

Production is forecast at 12.1 million bags in Ethiopia, which could export 7.1 million, and at 7.1 million bags in Uganda.

Global stocks recover but remain historically low

Global ending stocks are expected to increase for a second consecutive year, reaching 26.3 million bags in 2026/27. Despite the recovery, inventories would remain below their historical average.

Worldwide stocks fell by 15.5 million bags between the 2020/21 and 2024/25 seasons following a series of weaker Brazilian arabica crops.

Production growth in countries including Ethiopia, Mexico and Peru helped narrow the shortfall during that period but did not fully offset the decline in Brazilian supply.

The combination of a record Brazilian harvest, stronger exports and rebuilding inventories is expected to increase the availability of coffee worldwide. According to the USDA, prices have already fallen by around 25% over the past seven months as expectations of higher supply have strengthened.

Even so, the report noted that conditions in the international coffee market will remain heavily dependent on Brazil’s production cycle.

Source: Café Point

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