Why China rejected Brazil’s request to redistribute beef quotas

Chinese authorities have denied a request from the Brazilian government to redistribute remaining beef quotas unused by other exporting nations, sources familiar with the matter told Agro Estadão. The request was part of high-level negotiations regarding safeguard measures implemented by Beijing earlier this year on its beef imports.

Under the regulations set by China’s Ministry of Commerce—the primary destination for Brazilian beef—each exporting country must adhere to an annual shipment limit. For Brazil, the quota is set at 1.106 million tonnes, a volume lower than what the country exported to the Asian giant last year. In contrast, neighboring countries like Argentina and Uruguay hold quotas exceeding their typical shipment volumes—510,000 and 320,000 tonnes, respectively.

Furthermore, Chinese authorities have imposed an additional 55% tariff on volumes exceeding these quotas. This surcharge will be applied on top of existing tariff rates for each country. These safeguard measures are slated to remain in effect for three years, through December 31, 2028.

Last week, Brazilian Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services, Geraldo Alckmin, expressed concern over the safeguards. During a call with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng, Alckmin highlighted the livestock sector’s critical role in the Brazilian economy and emphasized the government’s priority on the matter.

Brazil shipped 157,005 TEUs of beef to the Chinese market between January and November 2025. The following figures, powered by Datamar’s DataLiner market intelligence, provide a month-by-month comparison of these export operations.

Brazilian Beef Exports to China | Jan 2022 to Nov 2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Market Analysts Weigh In on the Impact

The rejection of Brazil’s claims did not come as a surprise to the livestock market. According to Fernando Iglesias, an analyst at Safras & Mercado, redistributing quotas among exporters would contradict Beijing’s policy objectives. “From a practical standpoint, it seemed unlikely that Brazil’s demands would be met, particularly the request to absorb quotas from other markets. When China distributed these quotas, the goal was precisely to control the flow of imports and stimulate domestic production,” Iglesias noted.

The analyst pointed out that while the move could trigger inflationary pressure and lead to higher prices in the Chinese domestic market, the underlying strategy is to reduce external dependency.

Another significant hurdle for Brazil is the criteria China uses to track tariff-rate quotas. Iglesias explains that volumes are counted based on the date of arrival in China, regardless of the shipment date. “Cargo sold in November or December that arrives now will be counted toward the 2026 quota, further squeezing the space available for new Brazilian shipments,” he explained.

Despite the restrictive scenario, Iglesias suggests that market diversification—increasing exports to the Middle East, Europe, and other Asian nations—has helped mitigate the impact of Chinese safeguards. Nevertheless, Safras & Mercado projects a decline in total Brazilian beef exports for 2026. The consultancy currently estimates a volume of 3.28 million tonnes for the year—a 4% decrease compared to the 3.43 million tonnes recorded in 2025.

Source: Estadão Agro

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