WTO predicts 13% drop in international commerce in 2020

According to the assessment of the director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Roberto Azevêdo, international trade is expected to suffer an inevitable drop of 13% in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic that affected economies around the world. The declaration was made on August 4th in a webinar promoted by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) and the National Confederation of Industry (CNI).

According to the ambassador, at the beginning of the pandemic, the WTO worked with two scenarios – one pessimistic and the other even more negative. The first predicted a 12% contraction in world trade and the other bet on a much worse retraction of 32%. Roberto Azevêdo stated that the least worst scenario should prevail and reiterated that “this is worse than in the crisis of 2008/2009 and that only the Great Depression of the 1930s was worse”.

According to Roberto Azevêdo, Covid-19 will not end globalization, but it should bring about profound changes not only for relations between countries but also cause profound transformations in international trade.

According to the director-general of the WTO, the globalization that will be created after the pandemic will have, amongst other things, the reconfiguration of global value chains, in a scenario in which corporations seek to reduce dependence on a single input, region or supplier.

In Roberto Azevêdo’s assessment, “the pandemic exposed the risk of concentration of production. The production chains will be expanded and Brazil can take advantage of the opportunity. But you have to be competitive ”.

Source: Comex do Brasil

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