Green exports lose share in Brazil’s trade portfolio

Although Brazil is seeking to position itself as a global leader in the sustainable economy, the share of “green” products in the country’s export portfolio fell from 10.5% in 2016 to 9.3% in 2024, according to a survey by economists from the Center for Regional Development and Planning (Cedeplar) at UFMG, obtained in advance by Valor.

In absolute terms, Brazilian exports in this segment have remained stagnant at around USD 21 billion since 2021, after peaking at USD 31.5 billion in 2017. In other words, the group has remained stable while other Brazilian exports have grown — between 2017 and 2024, total shipments advanced nearly 57%.

“Having a clean electricity matrix does not necessarily mean we will lead the green industry. We do have an advantage because we already produce in a cleaner way, but many other countries need alternative energy generation or processes to cut emissions, and therefore will demand entry into these green sectors. So, it’s an opportunity for Brazil, but not automatically linked to the position we have today,” said João Prates Romero, one of the study’s authors.

The research indicates that the country is gradually expanding its role in this area. Based on classifications by the OECD, APEC, IMF, and WTO, which identify 152 existing green products, the study found that Brazil is competitive in 48, up slightly from 43 in 2016.

The fastest-growing items in Brazil’s green export basket include nickel-hydride batteries (linked to e-mobility), measuring instruments and devices (for environmental monitoring and industrial efficiency), high-power generators and transformers (for electric infrastructure), as well as material-based products, panels, tiles, and railway wagons (traditional industrial sectors).

By sector, green exports are dominated by machinery and equipment (38%), transport (32.7%), chemicals (18.1%), and metals (5.2%).

Complexity
The study also shows that the complexity index of Brazil’s competitive green exports rose slightly between 2016 and 2024, from 0.351 to 0.537. This group has much higher complexity than Brazil’s overall export basket, which averages just 0.008.

The authors argue that the government should place green products at the center of its industrial and trade strategies, linking them to initiatives such as the New Industry Brazil (NIB), the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC), and the Ecological Transformation Plan (PTE). They also recommend the BNDES step up financing for these products, especially given the strong presence of machinery and equipment.

“We have relatively low emissions, but if we don’t do our homework, we won’t benefit from this new phase of technological change toward cleaner production. Missing this train of supply chain renewal — one that prioritizes emission standards and has greater growth potential — would mean staying tied to high-emission products,” Romero said.

In Brazil’s case, he added, the bulk of the export portfolio is also responsible for a significant share of greenhouse gases, including methane emissions from livestock and oil production.

Source: Valor Econômico

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