With tariff hikes, exports to the U.S. plunge 38% in October, but trade balance with other partners remains positive

Brazil posted a trade deficit with the United States for the tenth consecutive month in October, according to data released on Thursday (6) by the Ministry of Development (MDIC).

A trade deficit means Brazil imported more American goods than it exported to the U.S. — a scenario considered unfavorable for the Brazilian economy.

According to the government, exports to the United States totaled US$ 2.21 billion in October, a sharp 38% drop compared to the same month last year.

At the same time, imports from the U.S. reached US$ 3.97 billion, representing a 9.6% increase year over year.

As a result, Brazil recorded a US$ 1.76 billion deficit in trade with the United States last month.

The worsening trade balance with the U.S. comes amid the tariff hikes announced by U.S. President Donald Trump.

• The last time Brazil posted a trade surplus with the United States — when exports exceeded imports — was in December of last year, with a balance of US$ 468 million.
• From January to October this year, Brazil has accumulated a US$ 7 billion trade deficit with the U.S., a more than 400% increase compared to the same period in the previous year (around US$ 1.38 billion).
• Data also show that Brazil has been recording consecutive trade deficits with the United States since 2009 — a period of 16 years — during which U.S. sales to Brazil exceeded imports by US$ 88.61 billion.

See below a historical chart of Brazilian containerized exports to the United States starting from January 2022. The chart was prepared using DataLiner data:

Brazilian Container Exports to the United States | Jan 2022 – Sept 2025 | TEU

Source: DataLiner (Click here to request a demo)

Overall Trade Balance

• Despite the drop in exports to the U.S., Brazil increased shipments to other key partners: China (+33.4%), Europe (+7.6%), and Mercosur (+14.3%).
• As a result, when considering trade with all countries — not just the United States — Brazil’s overall trade balance posted a US$ 6.96 billion surplus in October.

According to official data, this represents a 70% increase compared to the same month in 2024 (+US$ 4.09 billion).

It was the best October result since 2023, when a US$ 9.18 billion surplus was recorded.

In October:

• Exports totaled US$ 31.97 billion, up 9.1% per working day;
• Imports reached US$ 25 billion, down 0.8% per working day.

From January to October, the cumulative trade surplus stood at US$ 52.4 billion, representing a 16.6% decrease from the same period in 2024 (US$ 62.8 billion).

Trump’s Tariff Hike

The tariff increase announced by President Donald Trump was implemented gradually over several months, culminating in a 50% surcharge — effective August 6 — on roughly 36% of U.S.-bound Brazilian exports.

The U.S. president cited economic reasons, such as an alleged trade deficit with Brazil (which official figures show does not exist), as well as political issues related to the investigation of former president Jair Bolsonaro and “freedom of speech rights for American citizens,” among others.

In mid-August, the Brazilian government unveiled the first phase of a support package to assist companies affected by the new tariffs. The key measure was the creation of a R$ 30 billion credit line, with access conditioned on maintaining employment levels.

At the end of last month, Presidents Donald Trump and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) met in person — marking a new step in bilateral negotiations. Despite the meeting, the tariff hikes imposed by Washington remain in effect.

Source: G1

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