Brazil urea imports fall 25% through August, StoneX says

Brazil urea imports fell 25% from January to August compared with the same period in 2025, according to consultancy StoneX. Purchases of ammonium nitrate also declined sharply, dropping 33% over the same period.

The nitrogen fertilizer market has been one of the segments most affected by the conflict in the Middle East, which began in late February and remains unresolved. Countries in the region are major urea producers, and since the start of the conflict, prices for the input have risen by nearly 70% at one point, pushing fertilizer-to-crop exchange ratios to some of their worst levels in recent years.

A slowdown in market negotiations has brought urea prices back to levels seen before the war began, reducing the risk that Brazilian farmers would be unable to afford nitrogen fertilizers, according to Tomás Pernías, a market intelligence analyst at StoneX.

Still, Pernías said that although exchange ratios are now close to historical levels, purchases remain delayed compared with previous years.

“This suggests that, to recover the same levels of nitrogen fertilizer imports seen last year, Brazil will have to accelerate purchases and rebuild inventories,” Pernías said.

Corn planting outlook shifts attention to nitrogen fertilizers

As soybean planting approaches, StoneX said fertilizer-market attention should gradually shift toward Brazil’s 2027 second corn crop, known as the safrinha, increasing the focus on nitrogen fertilizers, especially urea. Corn is considered a crop that makes intensive use of this type of input.

“For now, exchange ratios and prices favor buyers, but as demand recovers, there is a possibility that prices will gain strength as Brazilian buying momentum picks up again,” Pernías said.

The outlook for Brazil urea imports will therefore depend on how quickly buyers return to the market, how fast inventories are rebuilt and whether global nitrogen fertilizer prices remain stable as demand for the next corn crop increases.

Source: Brasil Agro

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